UCLA

Texas Hold’em is a globally popular poker game, enjoyed both recreationally among friends and professionally in casinos. Despite its widespread popularity, there remains a persistent debate about whether Texas Hold’em is primarily a game of luck or skill. This paper aims to address this debate through a rigorous statistical analysis that both defines and quantifies luck and skill in Texas Hold’em. By examining obfuscated real-world poker game hand histories, we compute the expected profit attributed to either luck or skill for the players at each betting round. We then use various visualizations to compare these aggregated results, which allows us to discover patterns and derive meaningful insights. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamics of Texas Hold’em, offering implications for players, strategists, and policymakers.