UC Irvine

This study uses U.S. Census data on average home values in Southern California census tracts from 1960 to 2010. Using growth mixture modeling (GMM), 26 unique groups are detected capturing nonlinear change in neighborhood relative home values over this study period. There were seven broad patterns of changing home values: (1–3) decline and then rise (at high, mid, and low portions of the home value distribution); (4) rise and then decline; (5–6) a monotonic increase (either above or below the region average); and (7) a monotonic decrease. Multinomial regression models found that covariates exhibited a much stronger effect for distinguishing between the average level of home values in neighborhoods over the study period, rather than how home values changed over time.