UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies

In articles about China in both technical journals and the popular press one often finds an implicit assumption that Chinese consumers are on a direct path that will lead to car ownership sometime in the near-to-mid-term future. The purpose of this paper was to determine if there is a “common” pathway toward car ownership and if so identifying the stages of this pathway. The study also tested the validity of an assumed hypothetical motorization direction – from non-motorized to motorized, from low cost to high cost, and from shared to private-owned. The answers to these questions could be used to predict future levels of auto usage based on the number of people currently in different auto precursor stages.