UC Irvine

Numerical weather prediction models play a major role in weather forecasting, especially in cases of extreme events. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), among others, is extensively used for both research and practical applications. Previous studies have highlighted the sensitivity of this model to microphysics and cumulus schemes. This study investigated the performance of the WRF in forecasting precipitation, hurricane track, and landfall time using various microphysics and cumulus schemes. A total of 20 combinations of microphysics and cumulus schemes were used, and the model outputs were validated against ground-based observations. While the choice of microphysics and cumulus schemes can significantly impact model output, it is not the case that any single combination can be considered "ideal"for modeling all characteristics of a hurricane, including precipitation amount, areal extent, hurricane track, and the time of landfall. For example, the model’s ability to simulate precipitation (with the least total bias) is best achieved using Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) cumulus parameterization in combination with the WRF single-moment five-class microphysics scheme (WSM5). It was determined that the WSM5-BMJ, WSM3 (the three-class version of theWSMscheme)-BMJ, and Ferrier microphysics in combination with the Grell-Devenyi cumulus scheme were the best combinations for simulation of the landfall time. However, the hurricane track was best estimated using the Lin et al. and Kessler microphysics options withBMJ cumulus parameterization. Contrary to previous studies, these results indicated that the use of cumulus schemes improves model outputs when the grid size is smaller than 10 km. However, it was found that many of the differences between parameterization schemes may be well within the uncertainty of the measurements. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.