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Spatial analysis of driving accidents leading to deaths related to motorcyclists in Tehran



Traffic accidents are one of the main causes of death and disability, causing annual deaths of 1.23 million and tens of millions injured people worldwide. Meanwhile, a significant proportion of the deaths and injuries caused by traffic accidents occur among motorcyclists. According to the world health organization's 2015 report, about 25% of deaths from traffic accidents occur in motorists. In Iran, a significant proportion of deaths and injuries result from traffic accidents among motorcyclists, especially in passages within the cities. According to traffic police, about 25% of deaths and 50% of injuries in traffic accidents of Tehran are reported among motorcyclists. Therefore, due to the importance of this issue, the spatial factors influencing the incidence of motorcycle-related accidents in Tehran were investigated using the geographic information system.


The present work was a cross-sectional and descriptive analysis study. The data necessary for the study were extracted from Tehran traffic police as well as municipality databases. Zoning maps were used to display the distribution of events. In the analytical investigation, Moran index was used to determine the distribution pattern of the events, while Getis-Ord G * statistics were applied to analyze hot spots. To investigate the role of regional and environmental factors in the frequency of traffic accidents related to motorcyclists in geographic units (Tehran 22 districts), Poisson regression and negative binomial models were used. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to analyze the relationship between environmental factors and the location of these events. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS, STATA, ARC-GIS and GWR software.


The southern and eastern margins of Tehran are the most vulnerable areas in terms of deaths related to traffic accidents of motorcyclists. Highways are considered the location of most traffic accidents which lead to death of motorcyclists. Getis-Ord General G * (p < 0.04) indicates that the distribution of high-risk points is statistically significant. The final model showed that in Tehran, the association of different variables including demographic characteristics, pathways network and type of land use with the number of accidents in geographic units was statistically significant. The spatial distribution of traffic accidents leading to deaths of motorcyclists in the center of Tehran varies considerably with changes in population density, length of highways, volume of traffic, and land use in different parts.


Most of the traffic accidents leading to deaths of motorcyclists occur in highways. Various environmental variables play a role in determining the distribution pattern of these types of events. Through proper traffic management, controlling environmental risk factors and training people the safety of motorcyclists in Tehran can be improved.

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