Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

China’s cement industry emits over 1 Gt of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually, or 3% of global CO2 emissions. Urgent decarbonization efforts of the Chinese cement industry are needed to meet China and global community’s climate commitments. Prior studies on this topic primarily relied on supply-side technologies and end-of-pipe solutions, presenting one singular pathway to net zero without exploring multiple trajectories. This study adds value to the existing research by constructing and evaluating two different pathways toward net-zero emissions in China’s cement industry: the Energy Technology Pathway (ETP) and the Circular Economy Pathway (CEP). Both pathways aim for net-zero emissions but diverge in their prioritization and emphasis. The Energy Technology Pathway focused on supply-side technologies such as green hydrogen and CCS, while the Circular Economy Pathway focused on demand-side strategies, centered on materials and resources. The study showed both pathways can achieve a comparable level of emission reduction, reducing 94-95% of CO2 emissions by 2060 from the 2020 level. Notably, the role of CCS is limited in the CEP, contributing only 5% and 22% of total emission reductions by 2030 and 2060, respectively. The majority of the emission reductions in CEP are achieved through a combination of material-focused innovations and circular economy strategies, such as increasing the use of supplemental cementitious materials (SCMs), advancing alternative cements, integrating material efficiency practices in product lifecycle phases, and adopting alternative fuels (e.g., industrial wastes and agricultural byproducts). Policy support on materials and the circular economy will be critical. We recommend updating codes and standards to allow performance-based cement products, providing R&D support on alternative cements, developing implementation guides to disseminate material efficiency practices, and improving material/waste collection, sorting, and recycling systems.