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A century of climate and land-use change cause species turnover without loss of beta diversity in California’s Central Valley

  • Author(s): MacLean, SA
  • Rios Dominguez, AF
  • de Valpine, P
  • Beissinger, SR
  • et al.

Published Web Location

https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14458
Abstract

© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Climate and land-use changes are thought to be the greatest threats to biodiversity, but few studies have directly measured their simultaneous impacts on species distributions. We used a unique historic resource—early 20th-century bird surveys conducted by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues—paired with contemporary resurveys a century later to examine changes in bird distributions in California's Central Valley, one of the most intensively modified agricultural zones in the world and a region of heterogeneous climate change. We analyzed species- and community-level occupancy using multispecies occupancy models that explicitly accounted for imperfect detection probability, and developed a novel, simulation-based method to compare the relative influences of climate and land-use covariates on site-level species richness and beta diversity (measured by Jaccard similarity). Surprisingly, we show that mean occupancy, species richness and between-site similarity have remained remarkably stable over the past century. Stability in community-level metrics masked substantial changes in species composition; occupancy declines of some species were equally matched by increases in others, predominantly species with generalist or human-associated habitat preferences. Bird occupancy, richness and diversity within each era were driven most strongly by water availability (precipitation and percent water cover), indicating that both climate and land-use are important drivers of species distributions. Water availability had much stronger effects than temperature, urbanization and agricultural cover, which are typically thought to drive biodiversity decline.

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