UC Irvine

Teenagers who hold optimistic expectations for their future are less likely to engage in crime and risk-taking. This dissertation examined three questions related to future expectations among two samples of adolescent males who had all been arrested (Crossroads Study, N = 1216; Pathways to Desistance, N = 1170). The Crossroads study recruited males between the ages of 13-17 who had experienced their first arrest after a low level offense (i.e., misdemeanor), and interviewed them for four additional years. The Pathways study consists of males between the ages of 14-18 who were arrested for serious felony-level offenses and were interviewed multiple times over the course of seven years.

Study one used data from Crossroads and differentiated future expectations (the perceived likelihood of achieving one’s goals) from future orientation (the tendency to think about the long-term consequences of one’s decisions). Results supported the analytic distinction between expectations and orientation, and identified a portion of adolescents who displayed high expectations, but low orientation. This imbalance related to crime, substance use and casual sex. Study two assessed four mechanisms (impulse control, the perceived personal and social rewards of crime, and the perceived social costs of crime) to explain the link between future expectations and offending among youth in Pathways. Only the perceived social rewards of crime was a significant mediator, and suggested that youth with low expectations perceive more social rewards from crime, which relates to their decision to commit crime. Study three used data from Crossroads to understand the relation between estimated life expectancy and crime across development. The results revealed that youth become more optimistic about their chances for survival as they age, and also supported significant within-person associations with crime: as adolescents increase their life expectancy, they report lower levels of delinquency. The findings from the three studies underscore the importance of fostering positive expectations among adolescent males, and highlight the diversity of expectations among high-risk youth. Despite all participants experiencing at least one arrest, many continued to report positive future goals, and these goals played an important role in deterring continued risk-taking and crime.