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Model-based Bayesian Seismic Monitoring


This thesis presents the underlying probabilistic model, the parameter

estimation, and the inference algorithm of NET-VISA, Network

Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis. NET-VISA is an Open

Universe Probability Model (OUPM) for seismic events, the transmission

of seismic waves through the earth, and their detection (or

misdetection) at stations, as well as a model for spurious detections.

The probabilistic model allows for seamless integration of various

disparate sources of information. Applied in the context of the

International Monitoring System (IMS), a global sensor network

developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT),

NET-VISA achieves a reduction of around 60% in the number of missed

events compared to the currently deployed system. It also finds events

that are missed by the human analysts who post-process the IMS


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