UCSF

Background Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) after transient ischemic attack (TIA) has not been well studied. We compared the likelihood of new AF diagnosis after ischemic stroke versus TIA. Methods and Results The POINT (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke) trial enrolled adults within 12 hours of minor ischemic stroke or high-risk TIA. Our exposure was index event type (ischemic stroke versus TIA). The primary analysis used the original trial definition of TIA (resolution of symptoms/signs). In secondary analyses, TIA cases with infarction on neuroimaging were reclassified as strokes. Our primary outcome was a new AF diagnosis, ascertained from adverse event and treatment interruption/discontinuation reports. We calculated C-statistics for variables associated with newly diagnosed AF. We used Kaplan-Meier survival statistics and Cox models adjusted for demographics and vascular risk factors. Excluding 49 subjects with baseline AF, 2746 patients had index stroke and 2086 patients had index TIA. During the 90-day follow-up, 106 patients had newly diagnosed AF. Cumulative risks of AF were 2.7% (95% CI, 2.1%-3.4%) after stroke and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.5%-2.7%) after TIA (P=0.15). After reclassifying index events by neuroimaging, cumulative AF risk was higher after stroke (2.7%; 95% CI, 2.2%-3.4%) than TIA (1.8%; 95% CI, 1.3%-2.5%) (P=0.04). Index event type had negligible predictive utility (C-statistic, 0.54). Conclusions Among patients with cerebral ischemia, the distinction between TIA versus minor stroke did not stratify the risk of subsequent AF diagnosis, implying that patients with TIA should undergo similar heart-rhythm monitoring strategies as patients with ischemic stroke.