Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

Recent work shows that participants make asymmetric causal inferences from apparently symmetric correlational statements (e.g., “A is associated with B”). Can we make sense of this behavior in terms of rational language use? Experiment 1 investigates these interpretive preferences—what we call “PACE effects”—in light of theoretical and experimental pragmatics and psycholinguistics. We uncover several linguistic factors that influence them, suggesting that a pragmatic explanation is possible. Yet, since PACE effects do not show that correlational language leads to causal implicatures strong enough to influence action choice in practical decision contexts, Experiment 2 offers new evidence from an experiment that explicitly compares the effects of causal vs. correlational claims on decision-making. Our results suggest that causal inferences from correlation language are an intricate, but possibly