University of California Institute of Transportation Studies

Located within the seismically active Pacific Ring of Fire, California's transportation infrastructure, especially in the Bay Area, is susceptible to earthquakes. A review of current research and stakeholder interviews revealed a growing awareness of emergency preparedness among local jurisdictions and transit agencies in recent years. However, many have yet to formalize and publish their recovery plans. This study introduces an agent-based multimodal transportation simulation tool to enhance post-earthquake transportation resilience. Integrating a road network simulator with a metro system simulator, the tool employs an optimized Dijkstra-based algorithm to calculate optimal routes, travel times, and fares. A case study is conducted for the East Bay, using the simulator to gauge the impact of a compromised Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system. The results suggested that original BART passengers could face either longer commute times or higher costs during the recovery phase of a major earthquake without appropriate policies. Such outcomes could disproportionately burden low-income riders, affecting their mobility and overall travel time.