UC Irvine Institute of Transportation Studies

This paper presents a policy sensitive approach to modeling travel behavior based on activity pattern analysis.

The approach includes the formulation of a theory of complex travel behavior based on a recognition of the full range of interdependencies associated with an individual's travel decisions in a constrained environment. In the approach advanced travel is viewed as input to a more basic process involving activity decisions. A fundamental tenet of this approach is that travel decisions are driven by the collection of activities that form an agenda for participation; the utility of any specific travel decision can be determined only within the context of the entire agenda.

Based on the theory, an operational system of models, STARCHILD (Simulation of Travel/Activity Responses to Complex Household Interactive Logistic Decisions), has been developed to examine the formation of household travel/activity patterns employing a simulation approach in combination with techniques of pattern recognition, multiobjective optimization and disaggregate choice models. Initial empirial verification of the system of models is presented based on results obtained from a sample data set.

Conclusions are drawn concerning the merits of activity-based procedures relative to traditional approaches to travel demand modeling.