Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Sciences

Nolan's stage model of computing growth has been widely cited in the literature on information systems, but surprisingly has not received a careful analytical review. This paper reviews the Nolan model, assessing its development, structure, sensibility, and place within evolution explanations in the social sciences. The model itself is shown to be an evolving concept, responding to changes in the field of information systems and organizations. A critical assessment of the model's major assumptions and claims reveals that many of these are empirically weak and intuitively implausible, despite the intelligent insights that went into constructing the model. The model is shown to be largely an evolutionistic model rather than an evolutionary model, thus making it subject to many of the problems of evolutionist models. However, some aspects of an evolutionary theory are found in the model, making it a useful contribution to the continuing effort to improve understanding of the processes of change in organizational information systems over time.