UCLA

Importance

Guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) remains underutilized on a global level, with significant disparities in access to treatment worldwide. The potential global benefits of quadruple therapy on patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) have not yet been estimated.

Objective

To assess the projected population-level benefit of optimal GDMT use globally among patients with HFrEF.

Design, setting, and participants

Estimates for HFrEF prevalence, contraindications to GDMT, treatment rates, and the number needed to treat for all-cause mortality at 12 months were derived from previously published sources. Potential lives saved from optimal implementation of quadruple therapy among patients with HFrEF was calculated globally and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to account for uncertainty in the existing data.

Main outcomes and measures

All-cause mortality.

Results

Of an estimated 28.89 million people with HFrEF worldwide, there were 8 235 063 (95% CI, 6 296 020-10 762 972) potentially eligible for but not receiving β-blockers, 20 387 000 (95% CI, 15 867 004-26 184 996) eligible for but not receiving angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors, 12 223 700 (95% CI, 9 376 895-15 924 973) eligible for but not receiving mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, and 21 229 170 (95% CI, 16 537 400-27 242 688) eligible for but not receiving sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors. Optimal implementation of quadruple GDMT could potentially prevent 1 188 277 (95% CI, 767 933-1 914 561) deaths over 12 months. A large proportion of deaths averted were projected in Southeast Asia, Eastern Mediterranean and Africa, and the Western Pacific regions.

Conclusions and relevance

Improvement in use of GDMT could result in substantial mortality benefits on a global scale. Significant heterogeneity also exists across regions, which warrants additional study with interventions tailored to country-level differences for optimization of GDMT worldwide.