A wide variety of judgment tasks have shown that
once a reasoner favors a hypothesis, encountering
evidence which contradicts it might not, in and of
itself, dislodge that hypothesis. T h e interaction of
prior belief and n e w evidence w a s studied in a
covariation judgment task where subjects monitored
multiple predictor-outcome relationships. Each
relationship w a s programmed to reflect a strong
positive contingency in a first phase, but in the
second phase the contingency w a s negative,
disconfirming the acquired expectation. For two of
these relationships, the negative evidence w a s framed
as positive evidence for alternative relationships,
while in a third relationship, the negative evidence
w a s not presented as supporting alternative
explanations. Subjective contingency estimates
indicated that the negative contingency w a s
recognized in all three conditions. Belief
perseverance, as measured by the likelihood of
predicting the outcome on trials where the original
predictor variable w a s present, w a s the strongest in
the condition v^thout alternatives. These results
support the notion that belief change is a function of
the negative evidence pertaining to that belief and the
presence of alternative explanations which seek their
support from that same evidence.