In the first chapter of this dissertation I study the implications of InformationTechnology for Asset Prices. Using a comprehensive index of industry-level IT
intensity, I uncover several empirical regularities in the cross section of equity returns
over the past three decades: 1. Controlling for other commonly used factors, portfolios
with exposure to industries with high IT intensity have on average 7% higher annual
stock returns, suggesting industry-level IT intensity affects industry risk in a systematic
way, 2. These risk premia are driven by firms in industries with a large presence of
foreign multinationals, 3.These excess returns are not driven by High Tech sectors or
the dot.com bubble. I formalize these empirical regularities through a two-country
general equilibrium model with heterogeneous industries, allowing for differential
IT adoption across industries and time variation in entry of multinational firms.
Multinational firms operating outside of their headquarters are larger and more
productive and adopt IT to operate more efficiently. The entry of multinational firms
increases competition for domestic producers and displaces sales of unproductive
incumbents. This framework emphasizes the channel of displacement risk through
large productive multinational firms consistent with the literature on the effect of
Information Technology on the expansion of large productive firms. Investors in
industries with IT intensity, if incompletely diversified across countries and sectors,
require larger returns to hold portfolios of smaller domestic firms in IT intensive
industries and industries with a large share of sales dominated by multinational
firms. Consistent with the model, the risk premium is higher for smaller firms and
the effect of IT is amplified in industries with a larger share of foreign firms or more
product substitutability.
In the second chapter of this dissertation, I examine the relationship between
information and communication technology, multinational activity and displacement
risk for firms in United States. I use detailed data from Compustat on all public
firms to create consistent measures of foreign sales of firms in the United States and
abroad and present a description of how IT affects the level of overall concentration in
the United States and foreign entry and competition. My results indicate a positive
relation between foreign competition and IT adoption rates across US industries,
that potentially explains the negative effects of IT on market shares of US domestic
firms. The results challenge the common wisdom about IT and dominant firms in
the United States economy and shed light on the observed productivity gaps between
leaders and laggards. In particular, the mechanism supported from the data is one
where large multinational firms gain from IT and displace domestic firms’ market
shares leading to a reallocation of sales to incumbent multinationals that become
more productive.