We apply an incomplete demand system to supermarket scanner data to estimate the effects of a fat tax on dairy products for different demographic groups. We find own-price elasticities of demand are relatively inelastic and vary little across groups. A fat tax may be an effective means to raise revenue, but will not result in a significant reduction in fat consumption. The welfare effects associated with a fat tax are large and vary greatly across demographic groups. These fat taxes are regressive in nature, as the elderly and poor suffer greater welfare losses.

Do milk marketing orders affect various demographic groups differently? To answer this question, we use supermarket scanner data to estimate an incomplete demand system for dairy products. We use these estimates to simulate substitution among dairy products and the welfare impacts of price changes resulting from changes in milk marketing orders for various consumer groups. While we find little difference in own- and cross-price substitution elasticities of demand, the welfare effects of price changes vary substantially across demographic groups, with some losing and others winning from this government program.