Phenotype prediction is a key goal for medical genetics. Unfortunately, most genome-wide association studies are done in European populations, which reduces the accuracy of predictions via polygenic scores in non-European populations. Here, we use population genetic models to show that human demographic history and negative selection on complex traits can result in population-specific genetic architectures. For traits where alleles with the largest effect on the trait are under the strongest negative selection, approximately half of the heritability can be accounted for by variants in Europe that are absent from Africa, leading to poor performance in phenotype prediction across these populations. Further, under such a model, individuals in the tails of the genetic risk distribution may not be identified via polygenic scores generated in another population. We empirically test these predictions by building a model to stratify heritability between European-specific and shared variants and applied it to 37 traits and diseases in the UK Biobank. Across these phenotypes, ∼30% of the heritability comes from European-specific variants. We conclude that genetic association studies need to include more diverse populations to enable the utility of phenotype prediction in all populations.
