We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked
problems that emerge at the intersections of natural, social, and technological
complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of
interdependent global systems and the systemic risk they pose; such problems
escape solutions because they are often ill-defined, and thus mis-identified
and under-appreciated by communities of problem-solvers. While there are
well-documented benefits to tackling boundary-crossing problems from various
viewpoints, the integration of diverse approaches can nevertheless contribute
confusion around the collective understanding of the core concepts and feasible
solutions. We explore this paradox by analyzing the development of both
scholarly (social) and topical (cognitive) communities -- two facets of
knowledge production studies here that contribute towards the evolution of
knowledge in and around a problem, termed a knowledge trajectory -- associated
with three wicked problems: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife
trade. We posit that saturation in the dynamics of social and cognitive
diversity growth is an indicator of reduced uncertainty in the evolution of the
comprehensive knowledge trajectory emerging around each wicked problem.
Informed by comprehensive bibliometric data capturing both social and cognitive
dimensions of each problem domain, we thereby develop a framework that assesses
the stability of knowledge trajectory dynamics as an indicator of wickedness
associated with conceptual and solution uncertainty. As such, our results
identify wildlife trade as a wicked problem that may be difficult to address
given recent instability in its knowledge trajectory.
