The rapid decline in the welfare caseload remains a sub ject of keen interest to both policymakers and researchers. In this paper, I use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation spanning the period from 1986 to 1999 to analyze how the economy, welfare reform, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and other factors influenced welfare entries and exits, which in turn affect the caseload. I find that the decline in the welfare caseload resulted from both increases in exits and decreases in entries. Entries were most significantly affected by the economy, the decline in the real value of welfare benefits, and the expansion of the EITC. The EITC had substantial effects on initial entries onto welfare. Exits were most significantly affected by the economy and federal welfare reform. Federal reform had its greatest effects on longer-term spells of the type generally experienced by more disadvantaged recipients. Some out-of-sample predictions help explain the otherwise puzzling observation that, despite substantial increases in the unemployment rate since 2000, caseloads have remained roughly constant.

The deterrent effect of capital punishment has been debated in scholarly and pol­icy circles for at least two centuries. Much more recently, considerable efforts have been expended to characterize efficient operation of the entire criminal justice system, including its penal function.

In the first chapter, data on daily U.S. homicides are analyzed to test whether severe punishments act as a deterrent to murder. Previous linear regression analyses are discussed, after which the Poission regression model is argued, then demonstrated, to pro­vide a superior fit to the data. A specification test for the mean-variance equality implied by the Poisson model is derived, and negative binomial models utilized when these tests reject the Poisson. Both parametric and non-parametric methods are used to test the deterrence hypothesis: previous findings of a deterrent effect are shown to be quite fragile.

In the second paper, similar techniques are used to analyze a superior set of daily data from California over the period 1960-67. Specification tests for the negative bino­mial model are developed and a technique is employed to account for the stochastic dependence among the estimated regression coefficients, thereby providing sharper tests of the deterrence hypothesis.

In the third paper, the efficiency of criminal sanctioning policy is addversed. An illustrative model is posited, and optimality conditions derived and interpreted. Data from California counties are used to estimate standard economic models of crime for several categories of homicide and to test for efficiency in sanctioning.

Evaluations of changes to the Medicaid program have focused on increases in the generosity of income cutoffs for eligibility. Previous research shows that despite dramatic increases in the number of births paid for by Medicaid, many eligible women are still getting inadequate prenatal care. States have addressed this problem by adopting administrative measures designed to simplify the Medicaid application process and encourage the use of prenatal care. At the same time, recent declines in welfare caseloads may have caused many women to lose their Medicaid coverage by effectively increasing administrative barriers to obtaining care. We examine the effects of changes in income eligibility, administrative reforms, and welfare caseloads on the use of prenatal care and infant health using data from birth certificates covering all U.S. births between 1990 and 1996. We find that increases in income cutoffs were associated with increased use of prenatal care among whites, while decreases in welfare caseloads were associated with reduced use of prenatal care, especially among blacks. Reduced form estimates suggest that changes in income cutoffs were associated with a reduced probability of fetal death among blacks and disadvantaged whites. None of the administrative reforms we consider had consistently positive effects. These results suggest that the administrative reforms undertaken to date have been insufficient to break the close link between participation in welfare and access to prenatal care under the Medicaid program.

During the 1990s many states extended Medicaid eligibility to low-income parents who were not receiving welfare. We evaluate the effects of those expansions on health insurance coverage. To account for unobservable differences between expansion states and non-expansion states that may be correlated with both policy decisions and insurance coverage, we employ a within-state difference-in-difference technique that makes use of data only from expansion states. We find that the parental eligibility expansions increased Medicaid coverage of mothers with only small effects on private coverage. The expansions also increased the coverage of children, presumably by raising the benefit to the family of applying for coverage. We find substantial racial and ethnic differences in the effects of the expansions. As a result, the expansions help reduce racial and ethnic gaps in insurance coverage, particularly for adults.

Evaluations of changes to the Medicaid program have focused on increases in the generosity of income cutoffs for Medicaid eligibility. Previous research shows that despite dramatic increases in the number of births paid for by the Medicaid program, women often enroll in Medicaid at the point of birth rather than before. States have addressed this problem by adopting administrative measures designed to simplify the Medicaid application process and encourage the use of prenatal care. At the same time, recent declines in welfare caseloads may effectively increasing administrative barriers to obtaining care. We examine the effects of these three types of policies (changes in income eligibility, administrative reforms, and changes in welfare caseloads) on the use of prenatal care and infant health using data from birth certificates covering all U.S. births between 1990 and 1996. We find that increases in income cutoffs increased the use of prenatal care, while decreases in welfare caseloads reduced the use of prenatal care, especially among blacks. The administrative reforms we consider had little effect. The changes in the utilization of prenatal care that were induced by increases in income eligibility cutoffs and decreases in welfare rates led to small but statistically significant reductions in the incidence of very low birthweight among whites.