When initially confronted with the Monty Hall dilemma
(MHD), people show a very strong tendency to stick with
their initial choice, although switching maximizes winning
chances. Previous research demonstrated that certain
interventions helped participants to discover and apply the
optimal strategy, but generally failed to increase participants’
understanding of the MHD solution. An exception on the
latter finding is DiBattista’s (2011) digital learning
environment study, reporting that the majority of participants
who used the learning environment learned to understand the
MHD solution. However, a major shortcoming was
DiBattista’s (2011) methodology, which did not allow to infer
causal relations and to conclude which (combination of)
manipulation(s) was most important for participants’
understanding of the MHD solution. The aim of the present
study was to fill this research gap by conducting a controlled
randomized experiment with an analogous digital learning
environment. Participants were high-school students between
16 and 19 years old. The results showed that receiving
explanation about the MHD solution was the most important
manipulation to improve understanding. Implications for
education in (posterior) probability are discussed