This thesis examines the dynamics of macroeconomy and investigates the implicationsof changing environments from three different perspectives. Comprising three papers,
the thesis contributes to the understanding of macroeconomic dynamics and provides
insights on macroeconomic policy.
Chapter 1 focuses on the dynamics of labor market. Average hours worked per adult
in Japan fell by around one third over the last half-century. The leading explanation focuses
on government policies that distort labor supply decisions. This paper provides a
new interpretation that stresses the role of income effects in preferences. Through the lens
of a model of the market and home sectors and using non-homothetic preferences, I show
that the main driver of Japan’s decline in hours worked is income effects, rather than
labor-market distortions or population aging. The model predicts that average hours of
leisure will rise and home-production hours will remain roughly constant over the period,
which is consistent with evidence from time-use surveys. An alternative calibration
based on only labor market distortions counterfactually predicts that home production
hours will rise.
Chapter 2 answers the following questions related to population aging. How does a
grayer society affect the political decision making regarding inflation rates? Is deflation
preferred as a society ages? In order to answer these questions, the co-authors and I, referred
to as “we” throughout this chapter, compute the optimal rates of inflation that maximize
the lifetime utility of the young and the old households respectively, and explore
how they change with demographic factors, using a New Keynesian model with overlapping
generations. The long-run inflation target has a redistribution effect on households’
earnings and thus results in their heterogeneous preferences toward inflation. The rates
that maximizes the steady state welfare is nagative for the representative old household
but is close to zero for the representative young household. When the transition dynamics
are taken into account, their preferred inflation rates both decrease and become negative.
Because the old household’s preferred rate is lower, population aging generates a
negative composition effect on the population-weighted average of these rates. We find,
however, that both rates increase when population aging is made severer, and that the
population-weighted average also increases.
Chapter 3 turns to an analyses of industrial policy. A key recipe advocated to poorer
nations to leapfrog in their socio-economic development is to quickly absorb expertise
from countries at the technological frontier. This chapter examines the role of education
policies enabling technology diffusion across countries. The co-author and I, referred
to as “we” throughout this chapter, use the difference-in-difference framework to assess
the role of educational reforms, changes in the length of compulsory schooling, implemented
to different degrees and at different timings across countries. Our estimation
results suggest that the marginal impact of extending compulsory schooling by one year
has a positive effect on a country’s ability to receive products that embodies more advanced
technology, while it is not statistically significant.