Introduction

Molecular surveillance systems could provide public health benefits to focus strategies to improve the HIV care continuum. Here, we infer the HIV genetic network of Mexico City in 2020, and identify actively growing clusters that could represent relevant targets for intervention.

Methods

All new diagnoses, referrals from other institutions, as well as persons returning to care, enrolling at the largest HIV clinic in Mexico City were invited to participate in the study. The network was inferred from HIV pol sequences, using pairwise genetic distance methods, with a locally hosted, secure version of the HIV-TRACE tool: Seguro HIV-TRACE. Socio-demographic, clinical and behavioural metadata were overlaid across the network to design focused prevention interventions.

Results

A total of 3168 HIV sequences from unique individuals were included. One thousand and one-hundred and fifty (36%) sequences formed 1361 links within 386 transmission clusters in the network. Cluster size varied from 2 to 14 (63% were dyads). After adjustment for covariates, lower age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.37, p<0.001; >34 vs. <24 years), being a man who has sex with men (MSM) (aOR: 2.47, p = 0.004; MSM vs. cisgender women), having higher viral load (aOR: 1.28, p<0.001) and higher CD4+ T cell count (aOR: 1.80, p<0.001; ≥500 vs. <200 cells/mm³ ) remained associated with higher odds of clustering. Compared to MSM, cisgender women and heterosexual men had significantly lower education (none or any elementary: 59.1% and 54.2% vs. 16.6%, p<0.001) and socio-economic status (low income: 36.4% and 29.0% vs. 18.6%, p = 0.03) than MSM. We identified 10 (2.6%) clusters with constant growth, for prioritized intervention, that included intersecting sexual risk groups, highly connected nodes and bridge nodes between possible sub-clusters with high growth potential.

Conclusions

HIV transmission in Mexico City is strongly driven by young MSM with higher education level and recent infection. Nevertheless, leveraging network inference, we identified actively growing clusters that could be prioritized for focused intervention with demographic and risk characteristics that do not necessarily reflect the ones observed in the overall clustering population. Further studies evaluating different models to predict growing clusters are warranted. Focused interventions will have to consider structural and risk disparities between the MSM and the heterosexual populations.

Background

HIV pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) to NNRTIs in persons initiating ART is increasing in Mexico.

Objectives

To compare HIV PDR in eight sub-regions of Mexico.

Patients and methods

A large PDR survey was implemented in Mexico (September 2017-March 2018) across eight sub-regions. All larger clinics (which provide ART to 90% of all initiators) were included, allocating sample size using the probability-proportional-to-size method. Both antiretroviral-naive and prior antiretroviral-exposed persons were included. HIV PDR levels were estimated from pol Sanger sequences obtained at a WHO-designated laboratory.

Results

A total of 2006 participants were enrolled from 74 clinics. PDR to NNRTIs was higher than to other drug classes (P < 0.0001), crossing the 10% threshold in the North-East, East, South-West and South-East. NNRTI PDR was higher in the South-West (P = 0.02), coinciding with the highest proportion of restarters in this sub-region (14%). We observed higher PDR prevalence to any drug in women compared with men (16.5% versus 12.2%, P = 0.04). After multivariable adjustment, higher NNRTI PDR remained significantly associated with previous antiretroviral exposure in the Centre-North, North-West, South-West and South-East [adjusted OR (aOR): 21, 5, 8 and 25, respectively; P < 0.05]. Genetic network analyses showed high assortativity by sub-region (P < 0.0001), with evidence of drug resistance mutation transmission within local clusters.

Conclusions

Diversification of the public health response to HIV drug resistance based on sub-regional characteristics could be considered in Mexico. Higher NNRTI PDR levels were associated with poorer regions, suggesting opportunities to strengthen local HIV programmes. Price and licensing negotiations of drug regimens containing integrase inhibitors are warranted.