Groundwater storage in aquifers has become a vital water source due to the water scarcity inthe last years. However, aquifer systems are full of uncertainties, which inevitably propagate
throughout the calculations, mainly reducing the reliability of the model output. This study
develops a novel two-dimensional stochastic confined groundwater flow model. The proposed
model is developed by linking the stochastic governing partial di↵erential equations through
their one-to-one correspondence to the nonlocal Lagrangian-Eulerian form of the Fokker-
Planck equation (LEFPE). In the form of the LEFPE, the resulting deterministic governing
equation describes the spatio-temporal evolution of the probability density function of the
state variables in the confined groundwater flow process. This probability evolution is performed
by one single numerical realization rather than requiring thousands of simulations in
the Monte Carlo simulation. Consequently, the ensemble groundwater flow process’s mean
and standard deviation behavior can be modeled under uncertainty in the transmissivity field
and recharge and/or pumping conditions. In addition, an appropriate numerical method for
its solution is subsequently devised. Then, LEFPE’s solution is presented, discussed, and
illustrated through numerical examples. Furthermore, they are compared against the results
obtained through the Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the performance of the LEFPE
framework. Results suggest that the proposed model appropriately characterizes the ensemble
behavior in confined groundwater systems under uncertainty in the transmissivity
field.