Genetic correlation is a key population parameter that describes the shared genetic architecture of complex traits and diseases. It can be estimated by current state-of-art methods, i.e., linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) and genomic restricted maximum likelihood (GREML). The massively reduced computing burden of LDSC compared to GREML makes it an attractive tool, although the accuracy (i.e., magnitude of standard errors) of LDSC estimates has not been thoroughly studied. In simulation, we show that the accuracy of GREML is generally higher than that of LDSC. When there is genetic heterogeneity between the actual sample and reference data from which LD scores are estimated, the accuracy of LDSC decreases further. In real data analyses estimating the genetic correlation between schizophrenia (SCZ) and body mass index, we show that GREML estimates based on ∼150,000 individuals give a higher accuracy than LDSC estimates based on ∼400,000 individuals (from combined meta-data). A GREML genomic partitioning analysis reveals that the genetic correlation between SCZ and height is significantly negative for regulatory regions, which whole genome or LDSC approach has less power to detect. We conclude that LDSC estimates should be carefully interpreted as there can be uncertainty about homogeneity among combined meta-datasets. We suggest that any interesting findings from massive LDSC analysis for a large number of complex traits should be followed up, where possible, with more detailed analyses with GREML methods, even if sample sizes are lesser.

Genetic risk prediction has several potential applications in medical research and clinical practice and could be used, for example, to stratify a heterogeneous population of patients by their predicted genetic risk. However, for polygenic traits, such as psychiatric disorders, the accuracy of risk prediction is low. Here we use a multivariate linear mixed model and apply multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction for genetic risk prediction. This method exploits correlations between disorders and simultaneously evaluates individual risk for each disorder. We show that the multivariate approach significantly increases the prediction accuracy for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder in the discovery as well as in independent validation datasets. By grouping SNPs based on genome annotation and fitting multiple random effects, we show that the prediction accuracy could be further improved. The gain in prediction accuracy of the multivariate approach is equivalent to an increase in sample size of 34% for schizophrenia, 68% for bipolar disorder, and 76% for major depressive disorders using single trait models. Because our approach can be readily applied to any number of GWAS datasets of correlated traits, it is a flexible and powerful tool to maximize prediction accuracy. With current sample size, risk predictors are not useful in a clinical setting but already are a valuable research tool, for example in experimental designs comparing cases with high and low polygenic risk.