Introduction: There are currently no robust tools available for risk stratification of emergency department (ED) patients with lower gastrointestinal bleed (LGIB). Our aim was to identify risk factors and develop a preliminary model to predict 30-day serious adverse events among ED LGIB patients.

Methods: We conducted a health records review including adult ED patients with acute LGIB. We used a composite outcome of 30-day all-cause death, recurrent LGIB, need for intervention to control the bleeding, and severe adverse events resulting in intensive care unit admission. One researcher collected data for variables and a second researcher independently collected 10% of the variables for inter-observer reliability. We used backward multivariable logistic regression analysis and SELECTION=SCORE option to create a preliminary risk-stratification tool. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the final model.

Results: Of 372 patients, 48 experienced an adverse outcome. We found that age ≥75 years, hemoglobin ≤100 g/L, international normalized ratio ≥2.0, ongoing bleed in the ED, and a medical history of colorectal polyps were statistically significant predictors in the multivariable regression analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for the model was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.89). We developed a scoring system based on the logistic regression model and found a sensitivity 0.96 (0.90-1.00) and specificity 0.53 (0.48-0.59) for a cut-off score of 1.

Conclusion: This model showed good ability to differentiate patients with and without serious outcomes as evidenced by the high AUC and sensitivity. The results of this study could be used in the prospective derivation of a clinical decision tool.

Introduction: Patients with severe, symptomatic carotid stenosis can have their subsequent stroke risk reduced by surgical intervention if performed soon after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or stroke. Patients presenting to an emergency department (ED) without computed tomography angiography (CTA) with TIA/stroke, may require transfer to another hospital for imaging to rule out carotid artery stenosis. The objective of this study was to determine the test characteristics of carotid artery point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) in detecting greater than 50% stenosis in patients presenting with TIA/stroke.

Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study on a convenience sample of adult patients presenting to a comprehensive stroke centre with TIA or stroke between June–October 2017. Carotid POCUS was performed. Primary outcome measure, stenosis ≥ 50%, was determined by the final radiology report of CTA. A blinded POCUS expert separately reviewed the archived carotid POCUS scans. We calculated sensitivity and specificity for stenosis ≥ 50%.Results: We conducted POCUS on 75 patients, of which 70 were included in our analyses. Of those 70, 14.3% were diagnosed with greater than 50% stenosis. Carotid POCUS performed as follows: sensitivity 70.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34.8%-93.3%); specificity 86.7% (95% CI, 75.4%-94.1%); positive likelihood ratio (LR +) 5.3 (95% CI, 1.2-9.3); negative likelihood ratio (LR -) 0.4 (95% CI, 0.0-0.7). The inter-rater reliability between POCUS performer interpretation and expert interpretation had moderate agreement (k = 0.68). Scans took a mean 6.2 ± 2.2 minutes to complete.

Conclusion: Carotid POCUS has low to moderate association with CTA for detection of carotid artery stenosis ≥ 50%. Further research and investigation is needed prior to widespread use of carotid POCUS in patients with acute cerebral ischemia. Additionally, external validity is likely affected by availability of training, maintenance of competency, and experience in more rural centres.