Objective

To prospectively assess the relationship between overweight/obesity and incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among Mexicans aged 50+, assessing effects of age, genetic predisposition, education, physical activity, and place of residence.

Materials and methods

The Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) was used to prospectively follow respondents free of diabetes in 2001 who became diabetic by 2012. Multivariate random effects logistic regression was used to assess covariates effects on the incidence of T2DM.

Results

Obese or overweight individuals at baseline (2001) were about 3 and 2 times, respectively, significantly more likely to become diabetic by 2012. Genetic predisposition increases the risk of diabetes by about three times compared to those with no family history of diabetes.

Conclusion

Overweight/obesity and genetic predisposition are the primary drivers of diabetes incidence among Mexican older adults. Reducing body weight and having access to health care may amel iorate the disease burden of T2DM.

Objective

To obtain estimates of the effects of overweight and obesity on the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and adult mortality.

Materials and methods

We use three waves (2000, 2002, 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Survey (MHAS).We employ parametric hazard models to estimate mortality and conventional logistic models to estimate incidence of T2D.

Results

Obesity and overweight have a strong effect on the incidence of T2D;this, combined with the large impact of diabetes on adult mortality, generates increases in mortality that translate into losses of 2 to 3 years of life expectancy at age 50.

Conclusions

If increasing trends in obesity in Mexico continue as in the past, progress in adult survival may be slowed down considerably and the incidence of T2D will continue to increase.