Cliodynamics is a transdisciplinary area of research integrating historical macrosociology, cultural and social evolution, economic history/cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution is an international, peer-reviewed, open-access journal that publishes original articles advancing the state of theoretical knowledge in this transdisciplinary area. In the broadest sense, this theoretical knowledge includes general principles that explain the functioning, dynamics, and evolution of historical societies and specific models, usually formulated as mathematical equations or computer algorithms. Cliodynamics also has empirical content that deals with discovering general historical patterns, determining empirical adequacy of key assumptions made by models, and testing theoretical predictions with data from actual historical societies. A mature, or ‘developed theory’ thus integrates models with data; the main goal of Cliodynamics is to facilitate progress towards such theory in history and cultural evolution.
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Volume 13, 2022
Factors of Deconsolidation of the Liberal Democracy Regime. The Case of the United States of America
This article analyzes the hierarchy of factors in the development of crisis trends in a consolidated democracy using the example of the United States of America. The authors assess the surge of political instability in the United States, which led to the deconsolidation of the liberal democracy regime, through the prism of centrifugal processes within the American elite and the erosion of democratic institutions over the past 30 years. The main problem of the study is the contradiction between the crisis of democratic regimes in the countries of the Euro-Atlantic region and the high indicators of the factors of the consolidation of democracy, according to classical political science theories. The authors use the path analysis method to determine the main path and hierarchy of factors of erosion of the liberal democracy regime in the United States, which is an example of the "old" democracy and, according to traditional political science, is the most protected from destructive processes. Consideration of the case of deconsolidation of the liberal democracy regime in the United States, thus, sheds light on the possible ways of democracy reversion and risk factors for stability of democratic political systems.
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Technical and Methodological Comments on McLaughlin et. al. (2018)
While McLaughlin et. al. (2018) argue for similar trends in the medieval Irish historical record and the archaeological radiocarbon record, part of their results are due to an ad-hoc bandwidth being used to calculate the kernel density estimates (KDEs). This contribution looks at using a data-driven bandwidth to re-calculate the KDEs and also look at the first derivative of the KDEs. The results here indicate the radiocarbon record declines much sooner than the early 9th Century and not recovering again until the late 11th Century. Comments are also noted on the Irish annals and the approach, for at least one region, on the use of radiocarbon dating.
Taxation: A Vantage on the Reframing of the Economic Past
A Review of Fiscal Regimes and the Political Economy of Premodern States, edited by Andrew Monson and Walter Scheidel (Cambridge University Press, 2015), and Ancient Taxation: The Mechanics of Extraction in Comparative Perspective, edited by Jonathan Valk and Irene Soto Marín (New York University Press, 2021)