UC Berkeley

Nations facing severe constraints on land and fuel resources grapple with substantial obstacles in their pathways to the energy transition while maintaining energy affordability and guaranteeing energy security. In this dissertation, I explore the recent technological and methodological advancements that facilitate the energy transition in these countries: spatially explicit long-term planning, hydrogen, and offshore wind. I have focused on Bangladesh and Japan, two of the most densely populated countries in the world, both with limited domestic fuel resources.

In the first part, I assess investment opportunities for utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power, onshore wind, and residential solar PV, based on resource availability and key siting criteria for Bangladesh by extending a geospatial multi-criteria model with a focus on understanding land-use conflicts. I find that there is more utility solar potential than previously estimated, which can be developed at lower costs than coal power and with minimal cropland tradeoff. Furthermore, I find that solar PV generation does not align with Bangladesh’s average daily load profile, and options for increased grid flexibility and storage should be explored.

In the second part, I analyze the role of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage (LDES) and an international energy carrier in Japan’s power system. I combined the capacity expansion and production cost modeling on the SWITCH (Solar, Wind, Hydro and Conventional generation and Transmission Investment and Capacity Expansion) modeling platform to create a SWITCH-Japan model, with modifications to incorporate the LDES function of hydrogen in the model. I find hydrogen plays an essential role in providing a reliable power supply by balancing mismatches in VRE generation and load over several weeks and months and reducing the costs of achieving a zero-emission power system. I also find that the Government of Japan should prioritize domestically produced hydrogen, leveraging renewables for cost reduction, and strategically employing imported hydrogen as a risk hedge against potential spikes in battery storage and renewable energy costs.

In the third part, I examine the potential impact of offshore wind on achieving a zero-emission grid. First, I conducted detailed geospatial resource assessments for offshore wind. Next, using the SWITCH-Japan model developed through the second part, I evaluated four critical policy scenarios and resulting energy pathways concerning affordability, energy security, and land-use change and trade-offs of the scenarios. I find that the Least-Cost scenario, which accelerates renewable energy growth, reduces average system costs by 40% and increases the energy self-sufficiency ratio to 85%compared with those of the Business-As-Usual scenario. Furthermore, I find that offshore wind is the largest power source across all scenarios; offshore wind energy presents a strategic opportunity for nations to achieve energy self-reliance and reduce import dependence, emphasizing the need for timely infrastructure development. Moreover, stricter regulations and local opposition to onshore projects highlight the importance of offshore wind.

In the final part, I examine the technical feasibility, reliability, costs, and implications of Japan increasing its share of electricity generated from clean (non-fossil) energy to 90% by 2035. I find that, due to the decreasing costs of solar, wind (especially offshore), and battery technology, Japan can achieve a 90% clean electricity share by 2035, while reducing electricity costs by 6%, nearly eliminating dependence on imported LNG and coal, and dramatically reducing power sector emissions. Additionally, I find that Japan’s power grid will remain dependable without the need for new gas capacity or coal generation. To take advantage of these significant economic, environmental, and energy security benefits, strong policies such as a 90% clean electricity target by 2035 and corresponding renewable deployment goals are required.

The analyses produce data sets, models, and methodologies that can be utilized to assess pathways towards future zero-carbon electricity systems in countries with limitations in land and fuel. These resources can also be instrumental in formulating strategies and policies to ensure that the integration of solar and wind energy with storage solutions is both economically viable and sustainable, employing a spatially explicit, system-wide planning approach.