Evaluation of Decision Rules to Identify Postmenopausal Women for Intervention Related to Osteoporosis
Published Web Locationhttps://doi.org/10.1089/109350703322425509
Decision rules for intervention that utilize screening tools for bone mineral density (BMD) testing and incorporating the BMD findings and other risk factors to identify high-risk women to prevent fracture have not been evaluated. We examine the sensitivity and specificity of decision rules for intervention based on two pre-BMD screening tools: Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE) and a Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF)-based tool. Women 60 years of age and older without previous osteoporosis diagnosis were randomly selected from a managed care population and invited to receive a BMD test. Four hundred sixteen women had complete information and were included in the study. Women were classified as high risk requiring intervention using three different criteria: World Health Organization (t-score -2.5 or less), National Osteoporosis Foundation (t-score -2.0 or less, or -1.5 or less with one or more risk factors), and the SOF-based criteria (prior fracture; or age 60-64 with t-score less than -2.5 or age 65 or older with z-score less than -0.43 and five or more risk factors). SCORE identified 82% of the women as appropriate for BMD testing, whereas the SOF-based tool identified 26%. Sensitivity and specificity were 89.8%-96.5% and 23.8%-34.8%, respectively, for the decision rule using SCORE as the screening tool and 30.5%-84.9% and 76.0%-95.8%, respectively, for the decision rule based on SOF screening criteria. SCORE correctly identified more women who were at high risk for intervention, whereas the SOF-based tool correctly identified more women who do not meet intervention criteria. The appropriate selection of a screening tool depends upon the objective for intervention and trade-off between not identifying women for BMD testing who are at high risk and identifying more women for BMD testing who are at low risk.