UC Davis

This study focuses on mitigating and eradicating African Swine Fever (ASF) in Thailand by developing a spatially explicit agent-based model and utilizing Social Network Analysis (SNA). The core of the research is the creation of a detailed model that simulates ASF transmission through pig trade networks, integrating both local and national transmission routes to provide a comprehensive view of ASF spread. The model highlights high-risk regions, where both localized outbreaks and long-distance transmission are prevalent. Through the analysis of pig trade data and ASF outbreak simulations, the study identifies key high-risk premises critical to the spread of ASF in Thailand. The model facilitates the evaluation of various intervention strategies, such as movement restrictions, movement control, and culling. The results emphasize the importance of targeted interventions in high-risk areas to effectively reduce the impact of ASF outbreaks. Overall, this study provides a better understanding of ASF dynamics through the development of a detailed disease spread model, providing policymakers with valuable tools to design effective control measures for ASF in Thailand. Additionally, the model could be adapted for use with other transboundary animal diseases in pigs or other species, broadening its potential usage on global animal health management.