Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

Competition can be seen as Adversarial Problem Solving (APS), thus ideas from problem solving research can be applied to it. We tested if better modeling of the opponent led to better performance in APS using a zero-sum game played by pairs, but with no obvious skill component. We replicated earlier results that showed that third-order modeling (i.e., what I think my opponent thinks of me: R3MA), but not second-order model (i.e., what I think about my opponent: R2MA) correlated with performance. We also manipulated who was played (same person as in an earlier game, or a predetermined sequence) and who players were told their opponent was (same or different). Players performed better when they could apply the appropriate model (i.e., what they were told matched the opponent). Therefore, we showed that more accurate modeling of an opponent can lead to better APS. However, the critical aspect of modeling may be third-order modeling accuracy. We also found support for a game theory analysis of the task.