UC Davis

The effects of immigration and the integration of migrants are central concerns in advanced economies. This dissertation investigates the impact of the Covid19-induced immigration decline on US labor markets (Chapter 1) and explores two determinants of migrant integration in the US (Chapters 2 and 3).

The first chapter, co-authored with Giovanni Peri and published in the Journal of Population Economics (2023), documents the significant decline in international immigration to the US during the Covid-19 pandemic. We explore the timing, characteristics, and heterogeneity of this decline across states and sectors, and examine its effects on job vacancies and the mobility patterns of native workers. To do so, we use a shift-share instrument while accounting for concurrent labor market shocks, such as the emergence of remote work and changes in labor demand. Our findings indicate that the decrease in immigration following Covid-19, coupled with variations in the availability of remote work options, did not lead to significant shifts in cross-state or cross-sector mobility among native workers. Consequently, the decrease in immigration and the limited response of native workers may help explain persistent job vacancies, particularly in sectors with few remote work opportunities.

In the second chapter, I study how violence in Mexican source municipalities, stemming from the Mexican war on drugs in 2007, impacts the civic, social, and economic integration of Mexican migrants in the US. I combine US Census data on migrants' outcomes with novel administrative data that links migrants with their municipal origins. Additionally, I use an instrumental variable approach that exploits past locations of drug trade organizations within Mexico and time variation in cocaine supply shocks resulting from cocaine seizures in Colombia. The results show that heightened violence in migrants' municipalities increases their likelihood of naturalization and marriage to US citizens, particularly to other naturalized Mexicans. However, I find no changes in labor market outcomes or human capital accumulation of migrants. I provide evidence suggesting that a decline in migrants' intentions to return to Mexico is the primary mechanism driving these results.

Finally, the third chapter centers on the impacts of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, the most significant immigration-related executive action in recent history. Established during the Obama administration, DACA provided temporary relief from deportation and work authorization to undocumented migrants who arrived in the US before the age of 16. However, the policy faced challenges under the Trump administration, ultimately leading to its rescission in 2017. While existing DACA recipients retained their benefits, new applications were no longer accepted. Using a difference-in-difference methodology that exploits discontinuities in DACA's eligibility criteria, I estimate the effects of the policy between 2012 and 2019. I find positive impacts on the employment of eligible individuals, particularly in essential and licensed occupations, during DACA's early years. Nevertheless, I show that the policy’s effects fade out after 2017. I present suggestive evidence that this decline is driven by fears of policy cancellation and ensuing uncertainty, leading to chilling effects.