UC Irvine Institute of Transportation Studies

Recent state legislation addresses California’s housing affordability crisis by encouraging new development in transitaccessible and/or jobs-rich areas. But policymakers lack key information about the effects of laws and plans on developers’ decisions about whether and where to build housing, and factors contributing to delays in receiving government development approvals in target areas. Drawing on a unique dataset detailing all residential projects of five units or more that were approved from 2014 through 2017 in selected California jurisdictions, this project analyzes how project attributes and transportation-related factors affected infill housing construction. We find that in cities with extensive transit infrastructure, new projects were generally located in parts of the city with high proximity to transit, but that proximity to rail stops or high frequency bus stops was not associated with extreme delays in project approval compared to all projects in general. The only factors related to extreme delay are the percentage of land within a half mile radius of dedicated single-family housing and whether a multiunit project required a rezoning or general plan amendment, the latter of which is associated with 326% increase in the odds of a project being extremely delayed. Our findings suggest that cities could expedite transit-accessible housing development by ensuring that general plans and zoning accommodate multifamily development near transit.

The transportation sector is a major source of California’s greenhouse gas emissions, contributing 41% of the state total[1]. California policy is moving rapidly toward Zero Emission battery electric vehicles (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV). Governor Newsom has issued an executive order that all new in-state sales of passenger vehicles should be Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) by 2035. Further, the California Air Resources Board has approved rulemaking requiring that more than half of trucks sold in the state must be zero-emissions by 2035, and all of them by 2045 [1a].California has the ambitious goal of achieving a 60% renewable electricity grid by 2030 and 100% carbon free grid by 2045. High penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) requires seasonal storage to match supply and demand and hydrogen could be a possible candidate for this purpose [1b]. The author has developed the CALZEEV energy-economic model to study possible roles for hydrogen in a VRE intensive future grid with a large Zero Emission Vehicle fleet, comprised of both BEVs and FCVs. In particular, we study whether we can provide sufficient seasonal storage for a 100% zero carbon electricity grid and the potential role of H2 infrastructure in a BEV/FCEV combination for a sustainable path towards a zero-emission energy system. The role of hydrogen infrastructure in seasonal storage for balancing VRE generation while meeting demand for hydrogen vehicles year around has been studied, including economic impacts.

This project assesses the impact of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) on the resiliency of the electricity distribution system by: (1) Assessing the use of PEVs as a resiliency resource during grid outages (Mobility Services+), (2) Assessing and simulating the impact of PEVs on the distribution infrastructure during normal operations, and (3) Determining the local environmental impact of clustering PEVs. A previously developed model of a smart grid consisting of two distribution circuits and a distribution substation was modified to enable the use of PEVs in vehicle-to-home (V2H) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) configurations. Scenarios were simulated in which PEVs were used to serve critical loads in a home or community shelters, and a model was developed to assess the feasibility of using PEVs in grid restoration, which determined the inrush current of the substation transformer to determine the required power and energy for startup. The use of clustered PEVs and scattered PEVs in grid restoration was also considered. During normal operations, the stress on system components from high PEV demand resulted in accelerated aging and possible failure, thereby negatively impacting distribution infrastructure during normal grid operations. Smart charging is required to retain an acceptable level of resiliency. In contrast, during grid outages, this study demonstrated that PEVs can be used as an environmentally friendly resiliency resource to both serve critical loads and facilitate grid restoration with the qualification that implementation requires system upgrades including smart switches, upgraded inverters, energy management systems, and communication links.

California’s Housing Element law establishes processes for determining regional housing needs and allocating these housing needs to cities and counties in the form of numerical targets. This study assesses whether the state's housing allocation process achieves the state’s goals of promoting housing development in areas accessible to transit, jobs, and socioeconomic opportunities. Our first analysis compares the mechanism that the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) uses to allocate housing units to local governments with two simpler alternatives. For all three allocation mechanisms, we assess whether the resulting allocations align with the goal of promoting housing development in areas with high social mobility and near transit and jobs. We find that SCAG’s allocation method may be unnecessarily complex, and that simpler allocation methods – which are less susceptible to technical difficulties and political wrangling – could achieve the state’s policy objectives with less administrative burden. Our second analysis, based on case studies of two Southern California cities, provides preliminary evidence that current enforcement mechanisms adopted in California may be insufficient to ensure that local governments accommodate their housing targets and promote housing development near transit and job centers.

In California, there has been a growing concern about housing unaffordability and its negative consequences, but it has remained unclear how transportation is related to this issue. This report synthesizes the literature on the causes and consequences of local growth control which has been viewed as one of the most significant barriers to expanding housing supply and thus managing travel demand more effectively. Emphasis is on what insights can be gained from the literature and what further research is needed to better understand how transportation influences and is influenced by growth control actions.

The goal of this study is to assess and quantify the potential employment accessibility benefits of Shared Autonomous Mobility Service (SAMS) commute modes across a large diverse metropolitan region considering heterogeneity in the working population. To meet this goal, this study employs a welfare-based (i.e. logsum-based) measure of accessibility, obtained via estimating a hierarchical work destination-commute mode choice model. The employment accessibility logsum measure incorporates the spatial distribution of worker residences and employment opportunities, the attributes of the available commute modes, and the characteristics of individual workers. This research further captures heterogeneity of workers using latent class analysis (LCA). The LCA model inputs include the socio-demographic characteristics of workers to subsequently account for different worker clusters valuing different types of employment opportunities differently. The accessibility analysis results indicate: (i) the accessibility benefit differences across latent classes are modest but young workers and low-income workers do see higher benefits than high- and middle-income workers; (ii) there are substantial spatial differences in accessibility benefits with workers living in lower density areas benefiting more than workers living in high-density areas; (iii) nearly all the accessibility benefits come from the SAMS-only mode as opposed to the SAMS+Transit mode; and (iv) the SAMS cost per mile assumption significantly impacts the magnitude of the overall employment accessibility benefits.

To aid in addressing issues of air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the South Coast Air Basin, local transit agencies are considering a shift to battery electric buses (BEBs) and hydrogen fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs). Each of these options vary in their overall effectiveness in reducing different emission types over their life cycle, associated life cycle costs, ability to meet operational needs of transit agencies, and life cycle environmental footprint. This project carried out a life cycle-based analysis and comparison of the GHG emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, and other environmental externalities associated with BEBs and FCEBs, taking into account their ability to meet operational constraints of the Orange County Transportation Authority. From an environmental footprint perspective, this study found the following. First, both FCEBs and long-range BEBs have comparable impacts for global warming potential and particulate matter formation but when the FCEBs were fueled using renewable hydrogen. Second, using electricity from the current California grid mix to drive electrolysis to produce hydrogen for FCEBs produced only marginal benefits compared to current natural-gas fueled vehicles due to the low supply chain efficiency of this pathway. Third, the mining of precious metals is a major contributor to environmental footprint categories for both BEBs and FCEBs. Fourth, both FCEVs and long-range BEBs provide significant reductions in environmental footprint compared to conventional diesel and natural gas buses. From a cost perspective, this study found the following. First, with current-day cost inputs, FCEBs and BEBs have comparable total cost of ownership, but both have slightly higher costs than diesel and natural gas buses. Second, FCEBs have an equivalent total cost of ownership to BEBs when the electricity rate for charging is $0.24/kWh. Higher values render FCEBs as the cheaper option and lower values render BEBs as the cheaper option. Second, the total cost of ownership of these technologies is highly sensitive to electricity costs, and the rapid evolution of the electricity system has strong implications for the economic comparison between BEBs and FCEBs. Overall, this study finds that while both FCEBs and BEBs provide life-cycle environmental benefits, further cost reductions in electricity rates and initial purchase costs are needed to achieve total cost of ownership parity with conventional bus powertrains. With the rapid evolution of the electricity system and falling costs for renewable electricity resources, these cost reductions may occur in the near future.

Numerical simulations have shown that the network fundamental diagram (NFD) of a signalized network is significantly affected by the green ratio. An analytical approximation of the NFD has been derived from the link transmission model. However, the consistency between these approaches has not been established, and the impacts of other factors are still unrevealed. This research evalutes the impacts of start-up and clearance behaviors in a signalized network from a network fundamental diagram approach. Microscopic simulations based on Newell’s car-following model are used for testing the bounded acceleration (start-up) and aggressiveness (clearance) effects on the shape of the NFD in a signalized ring road. This new approach is shown to be consistent with theoretical results from the link transmission model, when the acceleration is unbounded and vehicles have the most aggressive clearance behaviors. This consistency validates both approaches; but the link transmission model cannot be easily extended to incorporate more realistic start-up or clearance behaviors. With the new approach, this project demonstrates that both bounded acceleration and different aggressiveness lead to distinct network capacities and fundamental diagrams. In particular, they lead to start-up and clearance lost times of several seconds; and these lost times are additive. Therefore, the important role that these behaviors play in the NFD shape is studied to reach a better understanding of how the NFD responds to changes. This will help with designing better start-up and clearance behaviors for connected and autonomous vehicles.

While a large amount of effort has been devoted to making and updating local transportation plans, little is known about the informational contents of these plans and their use patterns.  This project attempted to identify key informational contents of Californian cities’ transportation plans and to investigate how the plan contents can be used by various stakeholders through (i) a plan content analysis of a sample of general plans (recently adopted by eight municipalities in Orange County, California) and (ii) a plan use survey and follow-up analysis of survey responses. All plans analyzed were found to convey a variety of information about their visions, goals, policies, and implementation strategies, but the plan content analysis revealed substantial variation in the way cities composed their general plans and integrated them with other plans/players. Compared to land use elements, circulation elements tended to focus more on their connections with other agencies (external consistency) than on internal consistency. The plan use survey yielded a low response rate which may indicate limited use of plans in the field. However, a majority of the survey responses were positive about the usefulness and usability of general plans. In particular, the survey participants reported that they found the plans comprehensive, visionary, and well-organized, while relatively lower scores were obtained for two evaluation criteria: ‘[the plan] clearly explains what actions will be taken and when’ and ‘[the plan] is relevant to my everyday life and/or work’.  Furthermore, some respondents reported that they used general plans not for their professional duties but for other (non-conventional) purposes, suggesting that plan contents could be used for a variety of decision-making processes.

In spite of their substantial number in the U.S., our understanding of the travel behavior of households who do not own motor vehicles (labeled “carless” herein) is sketchy. The goal of this paper is to start filling this gap for California. We perform parametric and non-parametric tests to analyze trip data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) after classifying carless households as voluntarily carless, involuntarily carless, or unclassifiable based on a CHTS question that inquires why a carless household does not own any motor vehicle. We find substantial differences between our different categories of carless households. Compared to their voluntarily carless peers, involuntarily carless households travel less frequently, their trips are longer and they take more time, partly because their environment is not as well adapted to their needs. They also walk/bike less, depend more on transit, and when they travel by motor vehicle, occupancy is typically higher. Their median travel time is longer, but remarkably, it is similar for voluntarily carless and motorized households. Overall, involuntarily carless households are less mobile, which may contribute to a more isolated lifestyle with a lower degree of well-being. Compared to motorized households, carless households rely a lot less on motor vehicles and much more on transit, walking, and biking. They also take less than half as many trips and their median trip distance is less than half as short. This study is a first step toward better understanding the transportation patterns of carless households.