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Open Access Publications from the University of California
Cover page of Thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage

Thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage

(2026)

Ice-based thermal energy storage systems are widely utilized for cooling and managing peak electrical demand globally, offering daily or weekly storage capabilities for both individual homes and larger office buildings. However, scaling these systems for district-level cooling or integrating them with renewable energy sources presents challenges, especially in accommodating larger volumes and addressing seasonal storage requirements in densely populated urban areas. This paper proposes a novel solution by evaluating subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage, in which the underground is subjected to seasonal freeze/thaw cycles. However, these cycles may influence ground behavior, affecting pore pressure and inducing ground movement. To systematically investigate these challenges, we enhance the TOUGH-FLAC simulator by integrating water/ice phase change capabilities and updating the effective stress–strain constitutive relation. Both modifications are validated against analytical solutions or experimental data. Through numerical simulations spanning a decade with ten seasonal freeze/thaw cycles, we evaluate the performance and long-term stability of a generic subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage system, considering factors such as ground permeability, freezing pipe spacing, freeze/thaw damage, and glycol solution temperature. The simulations indicate that ice formation induces pore pressure variations that drive seasonal surface heave and settlement, controlled by ground permeability, pipe spacing, and glycol solution temperature, along with tensile and localized shear deformation around freeze pipes. This highlights the need for accurate ground property characterization and geomechanical analysis for subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage.

Ten questions on digital twins of buildings for transforming building operations

(2026)

Buildings are becoming ever more complex to manage during operations, driven by increasing dynamics in energy demand, intermittent on-site power generation, and distributed energy resources, compounded by variable grid pricing signals and the rising threat of extreme weather events causing large-scale power outages. To achieve optimal performance in energy efficiency, demand flexibility, energy resilience, and occupant comfort, new methods and tools are essential for transforming design and operations across a building’s entire life cycle. Digital Twins (DTs), enabled by recent advances in ubiquitous sensing, big data, cloud computing, and AI, offer a transformative approach to creating a real-time, bi-directional digital counterpart of a physical building. This paper presents ten critical questions highlighting the most foundational issues underpinning the successful deployment of digital twins for buildings. The questions are holistically structured around three core themes to provoke significant research and accelerate adoption. The paper first examines the Users and Business aspects, including use cases, stakeholder alignment, business models, and governance structures. It then dives into the Technology foundation, addressing key components, layered software architectures, data integration, semantic interoperability, and the critical issues of cybersecurity and privacy. Finally, it explores Application aspects, such as the role of AI, performance metrics and standards, and the current landscape of software tools. DT technology is still in the early stages of adoption in buildings despite successful pilot applications in preventive maintenance, FDD, and advanced controls to optimize building performance. Several barriers need to be addressed to scale up DT technology in buildings, including high development and maintenance costs, the lack of data-rich infrastructure in buildings, and a shortage of skilled workforce.

Cover page of Technical assessment of the negative solar radiative forcing and atmospheric cooling benefits of surface brightening projects

Technical assessment of the negative solar radiative forcing and atmospheric cooling benefits of surface brightening projects

(2026)

Brightening the Earth’s surface can increase the outflux of sunlight to space. This diminishes the net (downward minus upward) solar flux into the Earth’s radiative system, providing negative solar radiative forcing that can cool the atmosphere. We are quantifying the extent to which surface-brightening projects, such as installing solar-reflective roofs and pavements, can raise bottom-of-atmosphere (BOA) albedo, increase top-of-atmosphere (TOA) solar outflux, and reduce regional and global atmospheric temperatures. We compared four approaches to assessing BOA albedo: roof- or pavement-product documentation; local measurements with an albedometer (back-to-back pyranometers); extrapolation from extended-color aerial images (blue, green, red, and near-infrared); and multispectral satellite images sharpened by convolution with aerial images, selecting the last. We developed a technique to calculate the atmosphere’s upward solar transmittance anywhere in the Earth’s tropical and temperate zones based on analysis of BOA irradiances reported in the National Solar Radiation Database, then computed radiative forcing factors relating the increase in TOA solar outflux (negative solar radiative forcing) to the rise in BOA albedo (surface brightening). We identified atmospheric modeling experiments using both regional and global circulation models to quantify the atmospheric cooling potential of reflective surfaces at regional and global scales. These activities provide regional estimates of the atmospheric cooling benefits of reflective roofs and pavements.

Cover page of Xylose metabolic engineering of Issatchenkia orientalis for 3-hydroxypropionic acid production from cellulosic hydrolysate without nutrient supplementation

Xylose metabolic engineering of Issatchenkia orientalis for 3-hydroxypropionic acid production from cellulosic hydrolysate without nutrient supplementation

(2026)

Bioconversion of lignocellulosic biomass offers a promising alternative to petroleum-based chemical production. However, inefficient xylose utilization and toxic compounds in cellulosic hydrolysate limit microbial fermentation, as the hydrolysate contains substantial amounts of xylose in addition to glucose. To address these challenges, we engineered Issatchenkia orientalis to produce 3-hydroxypropionic acid (3-HP) directly from sorghum hydrolysate under low-pH conditions. A heterologous xylose utilization pathway consisting of XYL1, XYL2, and XYL3 from Scheffersomyces stipitis was introduced into an engineered 3-HP producing strain, enabling efficient conversion of xylose to 3-HP. The engineered strain produced 46.8 g/L 3-HP from sorghum hydrolysate without nutrient supplementation. To eliminate the lag phase under low-pH conditions, fermentation was conducted at pH 6.0 for the first three days, after which pH control was discontinued and in situ 3-HP accumulation buffered the culture. This partial pH control strategy increased 3-HP productivity by 55% from 0.20 to 0.31 g/L∙h, while maintaining low-pH conditions. Introducing an additional copy of XYL2 further increased 3-HP titer to 53.5 g/L and the yield by 33%, from 0.30 to 0.40 g/g sugars, with pH reaching 4.5 at the end of fermentation. This represents one of the highest reported 3-HP titers and yields from cellulosic hydrolysate without additional nutrient supplementation. This work demonstrates a nutrient-independent and low-pH bioprocess for upgrading lignocellulosic hydrolysate into 3-HP, highlighting the industrial potential of engineered xylose-utilizing I. orientalis for sustainable production of platform chemicals from renewable feedstocks.

Cover page of Approximation of refrigerant thermophysical properties using neural networks to speed up transient thermofluid simulations

Approximation of refrigerant thermophysical properties using neural networks to speed up transient thermofluid simulations

(2026)

Accurate and efficient evaluations of refrigerant thermophysical properties and their partial derivatives are essential for transient simulations of thermofluid systems, where several computations need to be executed at each integration time step. Since the utilization of an Equation of State for retrieving properties based on a pair of independent inputs typically involves numerical iterations in solution procedures, when the input variables differ from the refrigerant state variables employed in dynamic models, a variety of approaches including lookup table interpolation and curve fitting have been developed to explicitly approximate these properties based on the state variables, and consequently eliminate internal iterations. This paper presents an alternative method that exploits derivative-informed neural networks to model refrigerant properties explicitly from inputs of pressure and enthalpy, while ensuring consistent partial derivatives generated by differentiating the neural networks. Computational speed and accuracy of the proposed approach are demonstrated via transient simulations of a discretized heat exchanger model in Modelica, and comparisons against other property evaluation routines. Simulation results indicate that the proposed approach can realize a significant speedup with negligible discrepancies in predicted transients. The method is implemented in an open-source Modelica library.

Cover page of Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

(2026)

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Cover page of Improving energy efficiency while reducing anthropogenic heat from buildings: how retrofits influence the building stock and urban microclimate in Los Angeles

Improving energy efficiency while reducing anthropogenic heat from buildings: how retrofits influence the building stock and urban microclimate in Los Angeles

(2026)

Anthropogenic heat (AH) from buildings contributes to urban overheating, especially during heat waves, yet building retrofit studies usually evaluate energy savings without assessing impacts on AH. This study quantifies how common building retrofit measures affect both building energy use and AH emissions across the City of Los Angeles. Using a bottom-up urban building energy modeling framework coupled with high-resolution local weather from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Building Effect Parameterization (WRF-BEP), we evaluate eleven retrofit measures and two multi-measure retrofit packages. HVAC and LED lighting retrofits provide the largest city-wide annual site energy savings, while roof coating is most effective for reducing AH. A package optimized for energy savings reduces summer site energy use by about 32% (2.3 TWh), while a package incorporating AH-focused measures reduces the total AH by over 50% (137 PJ) with minimal difference in energy savings. The AH-aware package produces substantially greater urban cooling, reducing mean near-surface air temperature by up to 0.62 ℃ and peak temperature by up to 3.79 ℃. These results show that retrofit strategies selected only for energy savings may overlook major opportunities for urban heat mitigation. The study provides a framework for integrating AH into building retrofit planning and urban heat resilience policy.

Cover page of The global policy landscape of ISO 50001 energy management systems

The global policy landscape of ISO 50001 energy management systems

(2026)

While many options exist to improve industrial demand-side energy efficiency, energy management systems (EnMSs)—particularly those aligned with ISO 50001—are proven to drive continuous and meaningful energy performance improvements. Governments leverage these EnMSs in their policies to advance national objectives including enhancing industrial competitiveness and achieving environmental goals. Existing research has focused on the impact of EnMSs at the company level, while comprehensive work on EnMSs in a global policy context is lacking. We seek to close this gap by investigating the extent to which current national policies incorporate the utilization of EnMSs, particularly the ISO 50001 standard. Our paper employs a hybrid approach, combining a literature review and expert interviews across 28 governments representing > 86% of global primary energy consumption. We dissect policy mechanisms, governance levels, underlying motivations, and trends in present EnMS policies. We find that > 96% of the investigated countries include EnMSs within their policy scope; 90% of policies including EnMSs utilize the ISO 50001 standard in some capacity. Primary policy motivations include decarbonization, energy savings for industrial competitiveness, and energy system resilience. We highlight that in the EnMS context, policy mixes—combining economic incentives, regulatory instruments, and information-based approaches—are more effective than standalone measures. Our work provides a novel global overview of governmental EnMS policies, moving beyond whether EnMS should be adopted to focus on how they can be implemented most effectively.

Cover page of Characterizing electrical demand and load diversity of low-power water and space heating appliances in US homes

Characterizing electrical demand and load diversity of low-power water and space heating appliances in US homes

(2026)

Home renovation and remodeling projects can involve costly and time consuming electrical infrastructure upgrades at the household level. From the grid perspective they also lead to costly replacement of local infrastructure, such as transformers, and can add stress to the grid at peak times. The emergence of innovative, power-efficient household appliances offers a way to minimize these problems. These appliances are designed for lower power consumption, simplifying installation through standard plug-in connections, reducing the need for new electric circuits/panels/service, and minimizing the peak power demand for the home. Key examples include low-power heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) and cold climate window heat pumps that operate on standard 120V outlets. To assess the real-world impact of these solutions, we compiled and analyzed power metering data from several US field studies. This data provides insights into the effects on peak power demand of selecting lower-power appliances. Our analysis focuses on several key metrics, including the maximum power demand of individual appliances, their operational runtime, continuous operation and load diversity. While individual low-power 120V space and water heating appliances offer significant peak demand reductions compared to 240V heat pump or resistance alternatives, their longer runtimes might increase the likelihood of operation during whole-dwelling peak events, albeit at lower power levels.

Cover page of Understanding the Costs and Barriers of Residential Electrical Panel and Service Upgrades

Understanding the Costs and Barriers of Residential Electrical Panel and Service Upgrades

(2026)

Upgrading electrical panels and services in U.S. homes represents a significant barrier to building modernization, imposing considerable costs, delays, and procedural uncertainties on homeowners, contractors, utilities, and building departments. Although cost databases document individual infrastructure activities, they rarely capture the integrated, whole-project perspective required to understand how electrical upgrades are planned, executed, and regulated. Existing research is often geographically constrained, narrowly scoped, or derived from limited samples, leaving significant knowledge gaps unaddressed. This study examines the timelines and costs associated with residential electrical panel and service upgrades using data from a national cross- sectional survey conducted in summer 2025. The survey captured responses from 140 stakeholders across 34 states, including building industry professionals, utility staff, and building department staff. Findings indicate that project duration and cost increase substantially with building size though patterns vary by infrastructure type. Most single-family and small multifamily projects were completed within 30 days, whereas medium and large multifamily buildings show longer and less predictable timelines. Service rating increases modestly extend project duration, but building type and size were the primary determinants of delays. Cost patterns were similar: customer-side equipment and panel replacements scale predictably with building size, while utility-side costs are highly variable, often triggered by threshold-driven infrastructure upgrades such as transformer replacements. Permit fees vary considerably between jurisdictions but generally represent a minor proportion of total project costs. These findings identify electrical upgrades as a significant barrier to residential building costs and highlight the need for improved stakeholder coordination, streamlined permitting, and strategies that reduce upgrade requirements while maintaining safety and code compliance.