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Open Access Publications from the University of California
Cover page of Thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage

Thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage

(2026)

Ice-based thermal energy storage systems are widely utilized for cooling and managing peak electrical demand globally, offering daily or weekly storage capabilities for both individual homes and larger office buildings. However, scaling these systems for district-level cooling or integrating them with renewable energy sources presents challenges, especially in accommodating larger volumes and addressing seasonal storage requirements in densely populated urban areas. This paper proposes a novel solution by evaluating subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage, in which the underground is subjected to seasonal freeze/thaw cycles. However, these cycles may influence ground behavior, affecting pore pressure and inducing ground movement. To systematically investigate these challenges, we enhance the TOUGH-FLAC simulator by integrating water/ice phase change capabilities and updating the effective stress–strain constitutive relation. Both modifications are validated against analytical solutions or experimental data. Through numerical simulations spanning a decade with ten seasonal freeze/thaw cycles, we evaluate the performance and long-term stability of a generic subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage system, considering factors such as ground permeability, freezing pipe spacing, freeze/thaw damage, and glycol solution temperature. The simulations indicate that ice formation induces pore pressure variations that drive seasonal surface heave and settlement, controlled by ground permeability, pipe spacing, and glycol solution temperature, along with tensile and localized shear deformation around freeze pipes. This highlights the need for accurate ground property characterization and geomechanical analysis for subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage.

Cover page of Xylose metabolic engineering of Issatchenkia orientalis for 3-hydroxypropionic acid production from cellulosic hydrolysate without nutrient supplementation

Xylose metabolic engineering of Issatchenkia orientalis for 3-hydroxypropionic acid production from cellulosic hydrolysate without nutrient supplementation

(2026)

Bioconversion of lignocellulosic biomass offers a promising alternative to petroleum-based chemical production. However, inefficient xylose utilization and toxic compounds in cellulosic hydrolysate limit microbial fermentation, as the hydrolysate contains substantial amounts of xylose in addition to glucose. To address these challenges, we engineered Issatchenkia orientalis to produce 3-hydroxypropionic acid (3-HP) directly from sorghum hydrolysate under low-pH conditions. A heterologous xylose utilization pathway consisting of XYL1, XYL2, and XYL3 from Scheffersomyces stipitis was introduced into an engineered 3-HP producing strain, enabling efficient conversion of xylose to 3-HP. The engineered strain produced 46.8 g/L 3-HP from sorghum hydrolysate without nutrient supplementation. To eliminate the lag phase under low-pH conditions, fermentation was conducted at pH 6.0 for the first three days, after which pH control was discontinued and in situ 3-HP accumulation buffered the culture. This partial pH control strategy increased 3-HP productivity by 55% from 0.20 to 0.31 g/L∙h, while maintaining low-pH conditions. Introducing an additional copy of XYL2 further increased 3-HP titer to 53.5 g/L and the yield by 33%, from 0.30 to 0.40 g/g sugars, with pH reaching 4.5 at the end of fermentation. This represents one of the highest reported 3-HP titers and yields from cellulosic hydrolysate without additional nutrient supplementation. This work demonstrates a nutrient-independent and low-pH bioprocess for upgrading lignocellulosic hydrolysate into 3-HP, highlighting the industrial potential of engineered xylose-utilizing I. orientalis for sustainable production of platform chemicals from renewable feedstocks.

Cover page of Improving energy efficiency while reducing anthropogenic heat from buildings: how retrofits influence the building stock and urban microclimate in Los Angeles

Improving energy efficiency while reducing anthropogenic heat from buildings: how retrofits influence the building stock and urban microclimate in Los Angeles

(2026)

Anthropogenic heat (AH) from buildings contributes to urban overheating, especially during heat waves, yet building retrofit studies usually evaluate energy savings without assessing impacts on AH. This study quantifies how common building retrofit measures affect both building energy use and AH emissions across the City of Los Angeles. Using a bottom-up urban building energy modeling framework coupled with high-resolution local weather from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Building Effect Parameterization (WRF-BEP), we evaluate eleven retrofit measures and two multi-measure retrofit packages. HVAC and LED lighting retrofits provide the largest city-wide annual site energy savings, while roof coating is most effective for reducing AH. A package optimized for energy savings reduces summer site energy use by about 32% (2.3 TWh), while a package incorporating AH-focused measures reduces the total AH by over 50% (137 PJ) with minimal difference in energy savings. The AH-aware package produces substantially greater urban cooling, reducing mean near-surface air temperature by up to 0.62 ℃ and peak temperature by up to 3.79 ℃. These results show that retrofit strategies selected only for energy savings may overlook major opportunities for urban heat mitigation. The study provides a framework for integrating AH into building retrofit planning and urban heat resilience policy.

Cover page of The global policy landscape of ISO 50001 energy management systems

The global policy landscape of ISO 50001 energy management systems

(2026)

While many options exist to improve industrial demand-side energy efficiency, energy management systems (EnMSs)—particularly those aligned with ISO 50001—are proven to drive continuous and meaningful energy performance improvements. Governments leverage these EnMSs in their policies to advance national objectives including enhancing industrial competitiveness and achieving environmental goals. Existing research has focused on the impact of EnMSs at the company level, while comprehensive work on EnMSs in a global policy context is lacking. We seek to close this gap by investigating the extent to which current national policies incorporate the utilization of EnMSs, particularly the ISO 50001 standard. Our paper employs a hybrid approach, combining a literature review and expert interviews across 28 governments representing > 86% of global primary energy consumption. We dissect policy mechanisms, governance levels, underlying motivations, and trends in present EnMS policies. We find that > 96% of the investigated countries include EnMSs within their policy scope; 90% of policies including EnMSs utilize the ISO 50001 standard in some capacity. Primary policy motivations include decarbonization, energy savings for industrial competitiveness, and energy system resilience. We highlight that in the EnMS context, policy mixes—combining economic incentives, regulatory instruments, and information-based approaches—are more effective than standalone measures. Our work provides a novel global overview of governmental EnMS policies, moving beyond whether EnMS should be adopted to focus on how they can be implemented most effectively.

Cover page of Consumer safety-oriented scheduling of rotating power outages during heat waves

Consumer safety-oriented scheduling of rotating power outages during heat waves

(2026)

Extreme heat events have widespread effects on power systems, reducing available generation capacity, limiting transmission capabilities, and causing unusual demand patterns on the consumer side. As these combined effects expose bulk transmission systems to potential large-scale blackouts, utilities may be required to schedule and apply rotating outages, by temporarily and alternately disconnecting distribution substations to reduce overload. However, utilities lack mechanisms to inform these events, exacerbating the negative effects of heat waves on affected communities. This paper introduces a novel framework for scheduling rotating outages during heat waves while considering impacts on consumers’ safety. Instead of random sequential load shedding, we propose a methodology to rotate power outages considering a metric that quantifies the indoor overheating risk of groups of consumers during a power outage. The overheating risk is derived from a detailed building simulation using CityBES, where the buildings are modeled based on available data—use type, year built, floor area, number of stories, location—while presence of air conditioning and occupancy are calibrated from smart meter data. Based on the metric, an algorithm to schedule the rotating outages is applied to prioritize feeders for disconnection at each hour according to their overheating risk to meet a utility load reduction target. Applied to two substations and seven feeders in the Portland General Electric territory, the results show that this approach effectively leads to the lowest overheating risk during the resulting outage schedules, with an average 10.1% lower overheating compared to uninformed schedules.

Cover page of Bridging semantics, control specifications and assessment: A library for scalable demand flexibility controls

Bridging semantics, control specifications and assessment: A library for scalable demand flexibility controls

(2026)

There is growing recognition that Demand Flexibility (DF) can play a major role in enhancing grid reliability, with building control applications emerging as key enablers for DF. However, the traditional approach to deploying new control applications in buildings, including those for DF, remains largely manual and tailored to individual buildings, making it difficult to scale. While research efforts have explored semantics-driven portability, DF controls specification, and assessment approaches, these initiatives are fragmented and limited in scope. This paper proposes a novel methodology, grounded in design science research, to integrate these elements and create a comprehensive DF controls library for both industry and academia. This approach is applied to develop the Demand FLEXibility controls LIBrary using Semantics (DFLEXLIBS), an extensible open-source library that provides DF controls for HVAC systems in Python. DFLEXLIBS enables portable, easy-to-deploy controls that abstract building-specific data points, facilitating assessment across diverse buildings. DFLEXLIBS features nine different control applications, and it is successfully implemented and tested across four virtual and two real buildings, bridging the gap between semantics-driven portability, DF controls specification, and rigorous performance assessment. Its benefits are measured by a reusability ratio greater than 90% and a functional overlap ratio of around 70% for the most common functions used in the library, significantly reducing time for deploying new controls.

Cover page of Buildings Sector Scenarios: Demand-side data to support energy system planning in the United States

Buildings Sector Scenarios: Demand-side data to support energy system planning in the United States

(2026)

The US energy system is in a period of high uncertainty about load growth, its implications for the energy generation mix, and downstream impacts on customer energy costs. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive, credible, and readily-customized projections of energy demand to ensure that planning decisions account for end-use management opportunities to improve system reliability and affordability. Here we introduce the Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS) dataset, which includes a benchmark suite of such projections for the buildings sector — a key source of energy consumption, peak electricity demand, and consumer energy expenditures. The dataset contains projections through 2050 covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) resolved down to the county, hourly level by sector and end use for electricity demand and to the state, annual level by sector and end use for non-electric fuels. We summarize the BSS analysis workflow and the tools and datasets that support it, document key BSS scenario inputs and modeling assumptions, and outline BSS scenario outputs. We assess the technical quality of the dataset against historical surveys and projected estimates of buildings sector demand. Finally, we provide guidance on how stakeholders can access, use, and reproduce the dataset, and/or create new scenarios to explore their own analysis questions.

A Historical Extreme Cold Events Dataset for Building Energy and Resilience Modeling Across the United States

(2026)

Extreme cold snaps pose significant risks to buildings, infrastructure, energy systems, and occupants, yet standardized climatic datasets tailored for resilience-focused building performance modeling remain limited. This study presents a methodology and corresponding dataset of cold snap events for 217 U.S. cities, derived from 24 years of historical hourly temperature data obtained from the NASA POWER project. Cold snaps were detected using a percentile-based, location-specific threshold that identifies periods of “abnormal cold” with additional constraints to ensure that events reflect meaningful differences from local winter conditions. Each event was characterized using a suite of metrics, including event duration, heating degree hours, and overcooling degree. Events were further classified into four categories based on the mean outdoor air dry-bulb temperature, analogous to intensity scales used in other hazard domains. A selection procedure was applied to ensure that each city is represented by a small set of short, medium, and long-duration events, resulting in a curated dataset of 880 cold snaps suitable for building energy simulations and resilience assessments. The dataset is provided as EnergyPlus Weather (EPW) files accompanied by a summary spreadsheet containing all events and their metrics. This dataset supports the systematic evaluation of building performance under extreme cold weather conditions and provides a foundation for thermal and energy resilience modeling across the U.S. climates.

Cover page of Semantic Technologies in Practical Demand Response: An Information Requirement-based Roadmap

Semantic Technologies in Practical Demand Response: An Information Requirement-based Roadmap

(2026)

The transition to a modern and efficient future grid relies on the seamless coordination of distributed energy resources and applications such as Demand Response (DR). While this transformation enables greater sustainability, it inevitably increases grid complexity and decentralization, requiring the effective coordination of millions of hardware assets and software agents. Realizing this vision demands advances in interoperability to ensure these heterogeneous systems can communicate without prohibitive customization costs. Semantic interoperability aims to address this by leveraging ontologies to guarantee the unambiguous interpretation of exchanged data. However, current semantic ontologies in the commercial building and DR domains face two critical limitations. First, existing ontologies are often developed without a formal framework that reflects real-world DR requirements. Second, proposals for integrating general (e.g., Brick) and DR-specific ontologies (e.g., EFOnt) remain mostly conceptual, lacking formalization or empirical validation. In this paper, we begin to address these gaps by applying a formal ontology evaluation/development approach to define the information requirements (IRs) necessary for semantic interoperability, focusing on incentive-based DR programs for commercial buildings in the United States as a starting point. We identify the IRs associated with each stage of the incentive-based DR. Using these IRs, we evaluate how well existing ontologies, specifically Brick, DELTA, EFOnt, and CIM support the operational needs of DR participation. Our findings reveal substantial gaps between current ontologies and practical DR requirements. Based on our evaluation, we propose a roadmap of necessary extensions and integrations for these ontologies. This work ultimately aims to enhance the interoperability of today’s and future smart grid, thereby facilitating scalable integration of DR systems into the grid’s complex operational framework.

Cover page of United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update

United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update

(2026)

This report updates the 2024 Data Center Energy Usage Report (2024 Report) and estimates that data centers could account for 11.8% of total U.S. electricity by 2030. The estimate also includes a range of scenarios that indicate the energy use could be between 9.5 and 15.3% of total U.S. electricity use by 2030. In comparison, the 2024 Report estimate range was 6.7% to 12.0% of total U.S. electricity by 2028. The resulting electricity usage estimates in this Report are derived from a “bottom-up” energy use model, which determines electricity use from real-world data for planned data center IT equipment shipments (purchases), models of per-device annual electricity use and cooling system performance simulations, along with information on data center facility types and locations. The Reference Case estimate for electricity use (649 TWh in 2030) is calculated based on the current understanding of expected shipments and equipment design across the data center industry. The estimated range for electricity use by 2030 is derived from our Sensitivity Scenarios that explore targeted adjustments from the Reference Case. These Sensitivity Scenarios are driven by alternative data sources or industry feedback suggesting parameters or input datasets that may differ from the Reference Case. The parameters and adjustments include: • Lowering the forecasted installations of data center IT equipment (578 TWh in 2030); • Increasing the forecasted number of specialized graphics chips shipped and installed (664 TWh in 2030); • Reducing the assumed average operating lifetime of Artificial Intelligence (AI) chips (590 TWh in 2030); and • Increasing the idle power and utilization rates of AI servers (782 TWh in 2030). Additionally, the above sensitivities and additional uncertainty are combined into high and low Compounded Uncertainty scenarios, producing the ultimate estimate bounds of 521-843 TWh of U.S. data center electricity consumption in 2030.