Background/aims

Although tremendous progress towards the 2020 goal of global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been made, it will not be achieved. Future targets are now being considered. One option is changing the goal to eradication. We surveyed trachoma experts to assess beliefs related to trachoma eradication and determine perceived obstacles to achieving it.

Methods

We conducted a survey at the beginning of a trachoma eradication session at the 2019 Coalition for Operational Research on Neglected Tropical Diseases meeting in National Harbor, Maryland, USA. We asked respondents what the most important goal of azithromycin mass drug administration was for trachoma (control, elimination of infection or eradication) and if and when they believed trachoma eradication would occur. We then asked what the biggest obstacles were to global eradication.

Results

Fifty-six surveys were returned (95%). Most (91%) participants reported that the most important goal of azithromycin mass drug administration was control or elimination of infection, and 24% of participants reported that global eradication was not possible. Of the 76% who reported a year by which they believed trachoma could be eradicated, most fell between 2040 and 2050. Commonly cited barriers to global eradication included lack of surveillance tools to confirm eradication or monitor for infection recrudescence (32%) and lack of resources (23%).

Conclusions

Development of alternative indicators for trachoma surveillance and continued investment in trachoma programmes, particularly focused support in the most heavily affected populations, might increase enthusiasm for the feasibility of eradication.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends continuing azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) for trachoma until endemic regions drop below 5% prevalence of active trachoma in children aged 1-9 years. Azithromycin targets the ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis that cause trachoma. Regions with low prevalence of active trachoma may have little if any ocular chlamydia, and, thus, may not benefit from azithromycin treatment. Understanding what happens to active trachoma and ocular chlamydia prevalence after stopping azithromycin MDA may improve future treatment decisions. We systematically reviewed published evidence for community prevalence of both active trachoma and ocular chlamydia after cessation of azithromycin distribution. We searched electronic databases for all peer-reviewed studies published before May 2020 that included at least 2 post-MDA surveillance surveys of ocular chlamydia and/or the active trachoma marker, trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence. We assessed trends in the prevalence of both indicators over time after stopping azithromycin MDA. Of 140 identified studies, 21 met inclusion criteria and were used for qualitative synthesis. Post-MDA, we found a gradual increase in ocular chlamydia infection prevalence over time, while TF prevalence generally gradually declined. Ocular chlamydia infection may be a better measurement tool compared to TF for detecting trachoma recrudescence in communities after stopping azithromycin MDA. These findings may guide future trachoma treatment and surveillance efforts.

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends annual mass azithromycin distribution until districts drop below 5% prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF). Districts with very low TF prevalence may have little or no transmission of the ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis that cause trachoma, and additional rounds of mass azithromycin distribution may not be useful. Here, we describe the protocol for a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate whether mass azithromycin distribution can be stopped prior to the current WHO guidelines.

Methods

The Azithromycin Reduction to Reach Elimination of Trachoma (ARRET) study is a 1:1 community randomized non-inferiority trial designed to evaluate whether mass azithromycin distribution can be stopped in districts with baseline prevalence of TF under 20%. Communities in Maradi, Niger are randomized after baseline assessment either to continued annual mass azithromycin distribution or stopping annual azithromycin distribution over a 3-year period. We will compare the prevalence of ocular C. trachomatis (primary outcome), TF and other clinical signs of trachoma, and serologic markers of trachoma after 3 years. We hypothesize that stopping annual azithromycin distribution will be non-inferior to continued annual azithromycin distributions for all markers of trachoma prevalence and transmission.

Discussion

The results of this trial are anticipated to provide potentially guideline-changing evidence for when mass azithromycin distributions can be stopped in low TF prevalence areas. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT04185402 ). Registered December 4, 2019; prospectively registered pre-results.

Background

The World Health Organization aims to control blinding trachoma by 2020. Decisions on whether to start and stop mass treatments and when to declare that control has been achieved are currently based on clinical examination data generated in population-based surveys. Thresholds are based on the district-level prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years. Forecasts of which districts may and may not meet TF control goals by the 2020 target date could affect resource allocation in the next few years.

Methods

We constructed a hidden Markov model fit to the prevalence of two clinical signs of trachoma and PCR data in 24 communities from the recent PRET-Niger trial. The prevalence of TF in children in each community at 36 months was forecast given data from earlier time points. Forecasts were scored by the likelihood of the observed results. We assessed whether use of TF with additional TI and PCR data rather than just the use of TF alone improves forecasts, and separately whether incorporating a delay in TF recovery is beneficial.

Results

Including TI and PCR data did not significantly improve forecasts of TF. Forecasts of TF prevalence at 36 months by the model with the delay in TF recovery were significantly better than forecasts by the model without the delay in TF recovery (p = 0.003). A zero-inflated truncated normal observation model was better than a truncated normal observation model, and better than a sensitivity-specificity observation model.

Conclusion

The results in this study suggest that future studies could consider using just TF data for forecasting, and should include a delay in TF recovery.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922.

Mass administration of azithromycin for trachoma has been shown to reduce malarial parasitemia. However, the optimal seasonal timing of such distributions for antimalarial benefit has not been established. We performed numerical analyses on a seasonally forced epidemic model (of Ross-Macdonald type) with periodic impulsive annual mass treatment to address this question. We conclude that when azithromycin-based trachoma elimination programs occur in regions of seasonal malaria transmission, such as Niger, the optimal seasonal timing of mass drug administration (MDA) may not occur during the season of maximum transmission.

The WHO guidelines on mass distribution of azithromycin for child survival recommend monitoring of mortality to evaluate effectiveness. Trials that contributed evidence to these guidelines used a population-based census to monitor vital status, requiring census workers to visit each household biannually (twice yearly). Birth history is an alternative to the census approach that may be more feasible because it decreases the time and labor needed for mortality monitoring. This study aimed to compare the population-based census (reference standard) and birth history (index test) approaches to estimating mortality among children 1 to 59 months old using data from the Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial. Sixteen communities that received 5 years of biannual census in the MORDOR trial were selected randomly also to receive birth history surveys. The census approach recorded more participants and households than birth history, with correlations more than 0.94 for each. The correlation between number of deaths in each community was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.59-0.94). A comparison of the mortality incidence rate estimated from the census against the under-5 mortality rate estimated from the birth history resulted in a correlation of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.15-0.84). Of the 47% of children who were linked individually to compare vital status from each method, the death status of children had a sensitivity of 80% (95% CI, 73-89) and a specificity of 98% (95% CI, 98-99), comparing birth history to census. Overall birth histories were found to be a reasonable alternative to biannual census for tracking vital status.

We assessed trachoma grading agreement among field graders using photographs that included the complete spectrum of disease and compared it with cases where there was consensus among experienced graders. Trained photographers took photographs of children's conjunctiva during a clinical trial in Ethiopia. We calculated κ-agreement statistics using a complete set of 60 cases and then recalculated the κ using a consensus set where cases were limited to those cases with agreement among experienced graders. When the complete set of 60 cases was used, agreement was moderate (κ = 0.61, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.56-0.67). When the consensus set was used, agreement improved significantly (κ = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.68-0.80). The κ of the consensus set was higher than the complete set by 0.14 (95% CI = 0.12-0.16) (P < 0.001). If testing sets remove difficult-to-grade cases, agreement in trachoma grading may be higher than actually seen in population-based trachoma surveys.

BACKGROUND:Mass distributions of azithromycin for trachoma have been associated with secondary benefits, including reductions in child mortality. METHODS:In the Partnership for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma cluster-randomized trial in Niger, 24 communities were randomized to annual treatment of everyone and 24 communities were randomized to biannual treatment of children under 12 for 3 years (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00792922). Treatment was a single dose of directly observed oral azithromycin (20 mg/kg up to 1 g in adults). Vital status was assessed during annual census and monitoring visits. In this prespecified secondary analysis, we compared the mortality rate among children 6 months to less than 5 years of age by treatment arm using negative binomial regression. RESULTS:Among children 6 months to less than 5 years of age, 404 deaths occurred during the study period. The mortality rate was 35.6 deaths per 1000 person-years (231 deaths, 95% CI: 30.9-40.9) in the annual arm and 29.0 deaths per 1000 person-years (173 deaths, 95% CI: 24.8-33.8) in the biannual arm. The mortality rate ratio comparing children in the biannual arm to the annual arm was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.66-1.00, P = 0.07; primary outcome). The mortality rate ratio comparing children who died from infectious causes in the biannual arm to the annual arm was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.57-0.94; P = 0.02). No adverse events were reported. CONCLUSIONS:This secondary analysis of a cluster-randomized trial found a nonsignificant 19% decrease in mortality among children 6 months to less than 5 years of age who received biannual azithromycin compared with children who received annual azithromycin. This study was conducted in a high mortality, trachoma-endemic area; thus, results may be specific to this environment only. In addition, the trial was neither designed nor powered to detect a mortality effect, and we cannot rule out the possibility that mortality differences resulted from bias.

Background

Trachoma control programs utilize mass azithromycin distributions to treat ocular Chlamydia trachomatis as part of an effort to eliminate this disease world-wide. But it remains unclear what the community-level risk factors are for infection.

Methods

This cluster-randomized, controlled trial entered 48 randomly selected communities in a 2×2 factorial design evaluating the effect of different treatment frequencies and treatment coverage levels. A pretreatment census and examination established the prevalence of risk factors for clinical trachoma and ocular chlamydia infection including years of education of household head, distance to primary water source, presence of household latrine, and facial cleanliness (ocular discharge, nasal discharge, and presence of facial flies). Univariate and multivariate associations were tested using linear regression and Bayes model averaging.

Findings

There were a total of 24,536 participants (4,484 children aged 0-5 years) in 6,235 households in the study. Before treatment in May to July 2010, the community-level prevalence of active trachoma (TF or TI utilizing the World Health Organization [WHO] grading system) was 26.0% (95% CI: 21.9% to 30.0%) and the mean community-level prevalence of chlamydia infection by Amplicor PCR was 20.7% (95% CI: 16.5% to 24.9%) in children aged 0-5 years. Univariate analysis showed that nasal discharge (0.29, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.54; P = 0.03), presence of flies on the face (0.40, 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.64; P = 0.001), and years of formal education completed by the head of household (0.07, 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.13; P = 0.03) were independent risk factors for chlamydia infection. In multivariate analysis, facial flies (0.26, 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.49; P = 0.03) and years of formal education completed by the head of household (0.06, 95% CI: 0.008 to 0.11; P = 0.02) were associated risk factors for ocular chlamydial infection.

Interpretation

We have found that the presence of facial flies and years of education of the head of the household are risk factors for chlamydia infection when the analysis is done at the community level.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00792922.

Repeated oral azithromycin distribution targeted only to children has proven effective in reducing the ocular Chlamydia that causes trachoma. Here, we assess whether an enhanced coverage target of at least 90% of children is superior to the World Health Organization recommendation of at least 80%. Twenty-four trachoma-endemic communities in Matamèye, Niger, were randomized to a single day of azithromycin distribution aiming for at least 80% coverage or up to 4 days of treatment and > 90% coverage of children under age 12. All distributions were biannual. Children < 5 years of age and adults > 15 years were monitored for ocular Chlamydia infection by polymerase chain reaction every 6 months for 36 months in children and at baseline and 36 months in adults. Ocular Chlamydia prevalence in children decreased from 24.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.9-33.8%) to 4.4% (95% CI 0.6-8.2%, P < 0.001) at 36 months in the standard coverage arm and from 15.6% (95% CI 10.0-21.2%) to 3.3% (95% CI 1.0-5.5%; P < 0.001) in the enhanced coverage arm. Enhanced coverage reduced ocular Chlamydia prevalence in children more quickly over time compared with standard (P = 0.04). There was no difference between arms at 36 months in children (2.4% lower with enhanced coverage, 95% CI 7.7-12.5%; P = 0.60). No infection was detected in adults at 36 months. Increasing antibiotic coverage among children from 80% to 90% may yield only short term improvements for trachoma control programs. Targeting treatment to children alone may be sufficient for trachoma control in this setting.