Background

The integrase inhibitor dolutegravir could have a major role in future antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens in sub-Saharan Africa because of its high potency and barrier to resistance, good tolerability, and low cost, but there is uncertainty over appropriate policies for use relating to the potential for drug resistance spread and a possible increased risk of neural tube defects in infants if used in women at the time of conception. We used an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART with the aim of informing policy makers on approaches to the use of dolutegravir that are likely to lead to the highest population health gains.

Methods

We used an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission and progression in adults, which takes into account the effects of drug resistance and differential drug potency in determining viral suppression and clinical outcomes to compare predicted outcomes of alternative ART regimen policies. We calculated disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) for each policy, assuming that a woman having a child with a neural tube defect incurs an extra DALY per year for the remainder of the time horizon and accounting for mother-to-child transmission. We used a 20 year time horizon, a 3% discount rate, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted.

Findings

The greatest number of DALYs is predicted to be averted with use of a policy in which tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir is used in all people on ART, including switching to tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir in those currently on ART, regardless of current viral load suppression and intention to have (more) children. This result was consistent in several sensitivity analyses. We predict that this policy would be cost-saving.

Interpretation

Using a standard DALY framework to compare health outcomes from a public health perspective, the benefits of transition to tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir for all substantially outweighed the risks.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background

There is concern over increasing prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance in people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative public health responses in countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance to NNRTIs is high.

Methods

The HIV Synthesis Model is an individual-based simulation model of sexual HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART in adults, which is based on extensive published data sources and considers specific drugs and resistance mutations. We used this model to generate multiple setting scenarios mimicking those in sub-Saharan Africa and considered the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in 2017. We then compared effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative policy options. We took a 20 year time horizon, used a cost effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted, and discounted DALYs and costs at 3% per year.

Findings

A transition to use of a dolutegravir as a first-line regimen in all new ART initiators is the option predicted to produce the most health benefits, resulting in a reduction of about 1 death per year per 100 people on ART over the next 20 years in a situation in which more than 10% of ART initiators have NNRTI resistance. The negative effect on population health of postponing the transition to dolutegravir increases substantially with higher prevalence of HIV drug resistance to NNRTI in ART initiators. Because of the reduced risk of resistance acquisition with dolutegravir-based regimens and reduced use of expensive second-line boosted protease inhibitor regimens, this policy option is also predicted to lead to a reduction of overall programme cost.

Interpretation

A future transition from first-line regimens containing efavirenz to regimens containing dolutegravir formulations in adult ART initiators is predicted to be effective and cost-effective in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa at any prevalence of pre-ART NNRTI resistance. The urgency of the transition will depend largely on the country-specific prevalence of NNRTI resistance.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization.

The increasing prevalence of acquired and transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance is an obstacle to successful antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) hardest hit by the HIV-1 pandemic. Genotypic drug resistance testing could facilitate the choice of initial ART in areas with rising transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and enable care-providers to determine which individuals with virological failure (VF) on a first- or second-line ART regimen require a change in treatment. An inexpensive near point-of-care (POC) genotypic resistance test would be useful in settings where the resources, capacity, and infrastructure to perform standard genotypic drug resistance testing are limited. Such a test would be particularly useful in conjunction with the POC HIV-1 viral load tests that are currently being introduced in LMICs. A POC genotypic resistance test is likely to involve the use of allele-specific point mutation assays for detecting drug-resistance mutations (DRMs). This study proposes that two major nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI)-associated DRMs (M184V and K65R) and four major NNRTI-associated DRMs (K103N, Y181C, G190A, and V106M) would be the most useful for POC genotypic resistance testing in LMIC settings. One or more of these six DRMs was present in 61.2% of analyzed virus sequences from ART-naïve individuals with intermediate or high-level TDR and 98.8% of analyzed virus sequences from individuals on a first-line NRTI/NNRTI-containing regimen with intermediate or high-level acquired drug resistance. The detection of one or more of these DRMs in an ART-naïve individual or in a individual with VF on a first-line NRTI/NNRTI-containing regimen may be considered an indication for a protease inhibitor (PI)-containing regimen or closer virological monitoring based on cost-effectiveness or country policy.