The literature on the modeling of diffusion of technologies typically uses historical data to calibrate a model. For cases where data on the diffusion of comparable technologies are not available and where high multi-sector stakes are involved, models that use more specific information may be useful. The potential transition to alternative transportation vehicle technologies and fuels, like fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen, would be an example of such cases. We propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution. Our estimates of the time scales required for the market, particularly for the initial stages, are longer than those obtained in other studies.

Environmental and politico-strategic concerns have driven the increase in policy activity related to energy that the United States witnessed in the last few years. The nature of the issues at stake and the level of stakeholder involvement result in a highly complex policy debate. The broad concern of this paper is the study of this energy-policy process and the identification of the main policy issues. Specifically, multivariate analysis is applied to data on a wide variety of stakeholders’ policy beliefs and policy preferences to identify the policy dimensions that characterize the debate over energy policy in the United States. The focus is on the policy debate over hydrogen as a transportation fuel, although many results are applicable to the debate over transportation energy at large. The analysis uses a dataset of 502 individuals from 323 different stakeholder organizations obtained via a web-based survey specifically designed for this study.

In this paper we incorporate the expert opinions of key stakeholders in the estimation of the parameters characterizing the diffusion of a new technology. We focus on the case of fuel-cell vehicles, looking at the market-share dynamics in the presence of competing vehicle technologies. We build upon previous work on the diffusion of innovations and use data obtained from a survey of stakeholders of the hydrogen policy process.

In the context of a study of the policy process related to the adoption of hydrogen as a transportation fuel, an online survey was administered in May of 2005. The survey, sent to a sample about 4,000 individuals, obtained measures of stakeholders' perspectives on a wide variety of issues related to hydrogen policy. A total of 502 responses were received. Details on the survey sampling scheme, respondents' characteristics, and general descriptive statistics, can be found in Collantes (2005).

Factor analysis is a statistical data-reduction technique that aims at explaining the common variance in a number of variables with one single variable called "factor." Much of the value in—to many the Achilles heel of—factor analysis is that it elicits the incorporation of subjective expert judgments from the analyst. Conceptually, the idea of factor analysis is to use more than one variable to capture a hypothetical underlying (or latent) continuous construct. This technique found its first applications in psychometrics and has been widely adopted in the social sciences. One example relevant to policy analysis would be the operationalization of the concept of environmentalism. Environmentalism is not a measurable characteristic—rather it is a continuous latent construct. Obtaining measurements of the different aspects that define environmentalism, and running a factor analysis of them, could yield one single variable, a factor, which captures this concept. A good introduction to factor analysis can be found in Dillon (1984).

The hydrogen policy survey was designed, among other things, to investigate some of the underlying concepts present in the policy debate. Such latent constructs include: policy beliefs, policy preferences, stakeholders interests, hydrogen production pathway preferences, hydrogen education policy beliefs, and research policy preferences. This report presents the factor analyses that identify the underlying constructs in each of these areas. The results have value in and of themselves as they help understand the map of policy-related attitudes among participants in the policy debate over hydrogen. Also, the factors identified can be used as explanatory variables in further analyses of the same dataset.

This report is structured as follows. Section 2 presents a factor analysis of the set of normative policy belief statements in the survey. Section 3 presents a factor analysis of the statements related to policy preferences. Section 4 presents a factor analysis of the organizations' market interests. Section 5 presents a factor analysis of the preferences for hydrogen production pathways. Section 6 presents a factor analysis of the beliefs in terms of the synergies between markets for a number of technologies and markets for fuel-cell vehicles. Section 7 presents a factor analysis of research policy preferences. Section 8 presents a factor analysis of education policy beliefs. Finally, section 9 presents a discussion of the results, their interpretations, and implications for policy.

The Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, one of the most daring environmental policies related to transportation, was implemented in September, 1990, by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). It originally required that, starting in 1998, 2% of the in-state new light duty vehicle sales of major automakers had no emissions of criteria pollutants. The required ZEV percentage would be increased to 5% in 2001 and to 10% in 2003. CARB organized biennial reviews of the programs, to elicit stakeholder participation and monitor the evolution of the program. Through this review schedule, the program underwent several revisions resulting from intense policy debates.

This dissertation research is concerned with the study of the policy process over the ZEV mandate, from its conception, through its inception, and the biennial reviews, until 2004. The study is structured as three core chapters. The first chapter studies the origin of the ZEV mandate, trying to understand the conditions that favored and the factors that resulted in its implementation. To guide the study in this chapter, I use the Multiple Streams theoretical framework. The second chapter presents an empirical study of the policy process during the biennial reviews. This study aims at understanding the dynamics of policy change and coalition stability, identifying the policy dimensions that dominated the debate over time. I use the Advocacy Coalition Framework to frame the study in this chapter theoretically. The third core chapter presents a theoretical study of the strategic policy behavior of the main actors in the policy process. I develop a game-theoretical model of an environmental regulator (CARB) that needs to set emission standards in the presence of multiple industry players (automakers), who in turn need to decide on their level of compliance in the presence of a competitor. The model presented improves over previous published work in the subject.

The results of these studies yield numerous conclusions with both theoretical and practical implications. I find that Multiple Streams is useful to understand the origin of the ZEV mandate, while I identify and/or confirm arguments by other scholars about significant limitations in the framework. Through the analysis of the public testimonies given by stakeholders at the biennial reviews, I identify the policy areas of major concern at different points in time along the policy process. I also identify the policy positions of each stakeholder and obtain estimates of the groups of stakeholders with similar policy beliefs (belief coalitions.) I find that these belief coalitions show some stability over time, though less than what was found by previous studies. One of the major conclusions from the model of strategic behavior is that the competitiveness of the auto industry tends to preclude collusion. The regulator may use this industry competitiveness to its advantage and achieve higher social benefits.

In the context of a broader study of the policy process related to hydrogen as a fuel, we designed an electronic survey to collect policy beliefs from a wide range of stakeholders. In May, 2005, we sent an email to a sample of about 4,000 individuals, from about 1,450 different organizations in the United States and many other countries. The email contained a description of our study of the policy process related to hydrogen, an invitation to participate from the study, and a link to our online survey. The sample was drawn from several sources, primarily databases of attendees to conferences related to hydrogen.

A total of 502 responses from 323 organizations were obtained, for an approximate 12% individuals' response rate and a 22% organizations' response rate. While we believe these response rates are encouraging taking into account that our survey targeted people with significant time constraints, it may be misleading to assess the quality of the response based on response rates. We prefer to assess this quality by looking at two factors: a) the distribution of responses across organization categories, and b) whether responses were obtained from key stakeholders. Based on these factors, we believe our survey was extremely successful in terms of the quality of response.

This document describes the sample of respondents and presents the descriptive statistics of major policy variables obtained from their responses.

The California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) rule, adopted in 1990, is arguably one of the most daring and controversial air quality policies ever adopted. Some consider it a policy failure, while others credit it with launching a revolution in clean automotive technology. This paper is the first systematic empirical study of the policy process that resulted in the adoption of the ZEV mandate. We draw upon theoretical frameworks of the policy process, empirical data from public documents, and personal interviews with key stakeholders, to explain how a confluence of technology, policy, and political circumstances created a window of opportunity that led to the adoption of this policy. We expect the conclusions of our analysis to be useful to other policy debates that involve technological innovation. 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using survey data collected from 1358 commuting workers in the San Francisco Bay Area in 1998, this paper empirically explores the determinants of individuals' subjective assessments of their mobility (measured on a five-point ordinal scale, for 10 different categories of travel). Linear regression was used to identify the relative importance of reported mobility in explaining the variance of the dependent variables. A variety of personal factors were also found to significantly influence such assessments: personality traits, travel-related attitudes, lifestyle characteristics, and affinity for travel. The study provides insight into the way individuals mentally process the amount of travel they do, which will increase our understanding of travel behavior and its motivations. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.