Abstract

Bumblebee (Bombus spp.) queens overwintered in artificial settings tend to have low survival rates, raising concerns that diapause may be a particularly sensitive life cycle stage for this ecologically and economically valuable group of pollinators. However, it remains unclear whether lab-based estimates of diapause survival are comparable to survival rates of natural populations. In this study, we monitored the survival of Bombus impatiens queens overwintering in the field in Ipswich, MA, and conducted a meta-analysis of studies that estimate queen diapause survival in the lab to compare our field-based estimates of survival to those of lab-based studies. We found that queen B. impatiens had relatively high rates of overwintering survival after about six months (> 60%), especially when compared to estimates of six-month survival from lab studies (< 10%). We also observed a trend that broadly corroborates many lab studies of bumblebees, in that overwinter survival of queens was related to colony origin. In addition to providing the first estimate of diapause survival for bumblebee queens in nature, our study emphasizes the need to verify patterns observed in the lab to field-based studies.

Implications for insect conservation

Although protecting target species during sensitive life cycle stages is a fundamental goal of conservation ecology, it is first necessary to identify at what stages of the life cycle populations are most vulnerable. Our results suggest that, at least in some study systems, diapause survival of queen bumblebees in the field may be higher than suggested by lab studies.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10841-023-00478-8.

BACKGROUND: While interactions in nature are inherently local, ecological models often assume homogeneity across space, allowing for generalization across systems and greater mathematical tractability. Density-dependent disease models are a prominent example of models that assume homogeneous interactions, leading to the prediction that disease transmission will scale linearly with population density. In this study, we examined how the scale of larval butterfly movement interacts with the resource landscape to influence the relationship between larval contact and population density in the Baltimore checkerspot (Euphydryas phaeton). Our study was inspired by the recent discovery of a viral pathogen that is transmitted horizontally among Baltimore checkerspot larvae. METHODS: We used multi-year larvae location data across six Baltimore checkerspot populations in the eastern U.S. to test whether larval nests are spatially clustered. We then integrated these spatial data with larval movement data in different resource contexts to investigate whether heterogeneity in spatially local interactions alters the assumed linear relationship between larval nest density and contact. We used Correlated Random Walk (CRW) models and field observations of larval movement behavior to construct Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of larval dispersal, and calculated the overlap in these PDFs to estimate conspecific contact within each population. RESULTS: We found that all populations exhibited significant spatial clustering in their habitat use. Subsequent larval movement rates were influenced by encounters with host plants and larval age, and under many movement scenarios, the scale of predicted larval movement was not sufficient to allow for the homogeneous mixing assumed in density dependent disease models. Therefore, relationships between population density and larval contact were typically non-linear. We also found that observed use of available habitat patches led to significantly greater contact than would occur if habitat use were spatially random. CONCLUSIONS: These findings strongly suggest that incorporating larval movement and spatial variation in larval interactions is critical to modeling disease outcomes in E. phaeton. Epidemiological models that assume a linear relationship between population density and larval contact have the potential to underestimate transmission rates, especially in small populations that are already vulnerable to extinction.

Cyclical fluctuations in reproductive output are widespread among perennial plants, from multi-year masting cycles in forest trees to alternate bearing in horticultural crops. In natural systems, ecological drivers such as climate and pollen limitation can result in synchrony among plants. Agricultural practices are generally assumed to outweigh ecological drivers that might synchronize alternate-bearing individuals, but this assumption has not been rigorously assessed and little is known about the role of pollen limitation as a driver of synchrony in alternate-bearing crops. We tested whether alternate-bearing perennial crops show signs of alternate bearing at a national scale and whether the magnitude of national-scale alternate bearing differs across pollination syndromes. We analysed the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations time series (1961-2018) of national crop yields across the top-producing countries of 27 alternate-bearing taxa, 6 wind-pollinated and 21 insect-pollinated. Alternate bearing was common in these national data and more pronounced in wind-pollinated taxa, which exhibited a more negative lag-1 autocorrelation and a higher coefficient of variation (CV). We highlight the mutual benefits of integrating ecological theory and agricultural data for (i) advancing our understanding of perennial plant reproduction across time, space and taxa, and (ii) promoting stable farmer livelihoods and global food supply. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Aim: Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are a type of spatial population simulation. They are arguably well-suited to guide conservation in human-altered landscapes, but their appropriateness for a wide range of species and landscape types has often been questioned. Here, we provide an overview of how SPOM research has expanded over the last three decades and discuss the untapped potential for these models to inform current conservation strategies. Location: Worldwide. Methods: We carried out a systematic review of studies that have fitted SPOMs to real species and landscapes. We assessed temporal trends in SPOMs' use in conservation and management studies, their taxonomic and geographic coverage, and the attributes of studied landscapes. We quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated whether the authors' modelling choices reflected the perceived advantages and disadvantages of SPOMs. Results: The proportion of SPOMs used to answer conservation questions has increased over time. Questions of where, when and how to conserve have all been addressed, sometimes considering additional aspects such as cost-effectiveness and climate change. Taxonomic diversity coverage has increased over time, and SPOMs have been used in landscapes with a higher proportion of suitable habitat. They have, however, been predominantly applied in temperate biomes. Few studies have explored parameter extrapolation in taxonomically and ecologically related species with mixed results. Main Conclusions: Over the past three decades, authors have exploited the simplicity and flexibility of SPOMs to answer a broad range of questions with practical implications. The use of SPOMs in less fragmented landscapes, and for an increasing range of taxa, suggests that the strictest definitions of their applicability can be challenged. Stochastic patch occupancy models have untapped potential for informing conservation under climate change. Given the urgent need to plan for large numbers of species with limited data for fitting, SPOMs could better fulfil their potential to guide conservation if parameters could be extrapolated to data-deficient landscapes and species.

Insectivorous birds can provide ecological and economic services by decreasing pest populations in agricultural systems, but the magnitude of effect is often debated. We modeled the capacity for birds to suppress pest population growth using a common tropical coffee pest, the coffee berry borer (CBB) (Hypothenemus hampei) as a study system. Previous field experiments show that birds play a role in suppressing CBB infestations through predation, but the degree to which birds can suppress population growth enough to control infestations is unknown since CBB are only vulnerable to predators when gravid females disperse. Using previously published data on CBB life-stage survivability, we constructed a female-only, daily time-step, deterministic Leslie matrix and projected CBB population growth for a single breeding season. Our goal was to assess the plausibility of CBB suppression by birds as a function of avian energy requirements, reported avian densities on coffee farms, prey composition of avian diets, estimated a caloric value of CBB, and the initial starting population size. Our model showed CBB population growth became exponential (λdaily = 1.042) and that at low, but not medium or high population sizes, were birds able to reduce population growth by 50%. In general, birds exert predation pressure on insect populations, but the ability to control infestations is complex, and is likely dependent on the initial CBB population size.

Behavior and organization of social groups is thought to be vital to the functioning of societies, yet the contributions of various roles within social groups toward population growth and dynamics have been difficult to quantify. A common approach to quantifying these role-based contributions is evaluating the number of individuals conducting certain roles, which ignores how behavior might scale up to effects at the population-level. Manipulative experiments are another common approach to determine population-level effects, but they often ignore potential feedbacks associated with these various roles.Here, we evaluate the effects of worker size distribution in bumblebee colonies on worker production in 24 observational colonies across three environments, using functional linear models. Functional linear models are an underused correlative technique that has been used to assess lag effects of environmental drivers on plant performance. We demonstrate potential applications of this technique for exploring high-dimensional ecological systems, such as the contributions of individuals with different traits to colony dynamics.We found that more larger workers had mostly positive effects and more smaller workers had negative effects on worker production. Most of these effects were only detected under low or fluctuating resource environments suggesting that the advantage of colonies with larger-bodied workers becomes more apparent under stressful conditions.We also demonstrate the wider ecological application of functional linear models. We highlight the advantages and limitations when considering these models, and how they are a valuable complement to many of these performance-based and manipulative experiments.

Understanding the circumstances under which insect herbivores will adopt a novel host plant is a longstanding question in basic and applied ecology. While geographic variation in host use can arise through differences in both herbivore preference and plant characteristics, there is a tendency to attribute geographic variation in host use to regional differences in herbivore preference alone. This is especially true for herbivores specialized to one or a few plant species. We compared how geographic variation in herbivore preference and host plant origin shape regional differences in host plant use by the specialized herbivore, Euphydryas phaeton. In parts of its range, E. phaeton uses only a native host, Chelone glabra, while in others, it also uses an introduced host, Plantago lanceolata. We offered female butterflies from each region the non-native host plant sourced from both regions and compared their oviposition behavior. The non-native host was almost universally rejected by butterflies in the region where only the native plant is used. In the region where butterflies use both hosts, females accepted non-native plants from their natal region twice as often as non-native plants from the other region where they are not used. Acceptance differed substantially among individual butterflies within regions but not among plants within regions. Thus, both individual preference and regional differences in both the insect and non-native host contributed to the geographic variation in different ways. These results highlight that, in addition to herbivore preference, regional differences in perceived plant suitability may be an important driver of diet breadth.

Migratory animals follow seasonal cycles comprising linked phases often with different habitat requirements and demographic processes. Conservation of migratory species therefore must consider the full seasonal cycle to identify points limiting population viability. For western monarch butterflies, which have experienced significant declines, early spring is considered a critical period in the annual population cycle. However, records of western monarchs in early spring, when overall abundance is lowest, have historically been extremely limited. We used a community science initiative, the Western Monarch Mystery Challenge, to collect data on monarch distribution throughout the western United States between February 14th and April 22nd over 3 years. Using data from the Western Monarch Mystery Challenge and iNaturalist, we identified potential breeding habitat for western monarchs in early spring that spanned a large geographic area and several ecoregions. We observed monarchs in early spring that likely eclosed in the current year, suggesting that population expansion from overwintering sites reflects both movement and population growth. The number of records of western monarchs from early spring was higher during the Mystery Challenge (33.0/year) than earlier years (5.1/year). This study demonstrates the potential for and limitations of community science to increase our understanding of species at points in the life cycle when they are rare.

Home range size generally decreases with increasing population density, but testing how this relationship is influenced by other factors (e.g., food availability, kin structure) is a difficult task. We used spatially explicit capture-recapture models to examine how home range size varies with population density in the yellow-necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollis). The relationship between population density and home range size was studied at two distinct phases of population fluctuations induced by beech (Fagus sylvatica) masting: post-mast peak in abundance (first summer after mast, n = 2) and subsequent crash (second summer after mast, n = 2). We live-trapped mice from June to September to avoid the confounding effects of autumn seedfall on home range size. In accordance with general predictions, we found that home range size was negatively associated with population density. However, after controlling for the effect of density, home ranges of mice were larger in post-mast years than during the crash phase. This indicates a higher spatial overlap among neighbors in post-mast years. We suggest that the increased spatial overlap is caused by negative density-dependent dispersal that leads to high relatedness of individuals within population in the peak phase of the cycle.

Background and aims

In a range of plant species, the distribution of individual mean fecundity is skewed and dominated by a few highly fecund individuals. Larger plants produce greater seed crops, but the exact nature of the relationship between size and reproductive patterns is poorly understood. This is especially clear in plants that reproduce by exhibiting synchronized quasi-periodic variation in fruit production, a process called masting.

Methods

We investigated covariation of plant size and fecundity with individual-plant-level masting patterns and seed predation in 12 mast-seeding species: Pinus pinea, Astragalus scaphoides, Sorbus aucuparia, Quercus ilex, Q. humilis, Q. rubra, Q. alba, Q. montana, Chionochloa pallens, C. macra, Celmisia lyallii and Phormium tenax.

Key results

Fecundity was non-linearly related to masting patterns. Small and unproductive plants frequently failed to produce any seeds, which elevated their annual variation and decreased synchrony. Above a low fecundity threshold, plants had similar variability and synchrony, regardless of their size and productivity.

Conclusions

Our study shows that within-species variation in masting patterns is correlated with variation in fecundity, which in turn is related to plant size. Low synchrony of low-fertility plants shows that the failure years were idiosyncratic to each small plant, which in turn implies that the small plants fail to reproduce because of plant-specific factors (e.g. internal resource limits). Thus, the behaviour of these sub-producers is apparently the result of trade-offs in resource allocation and environmental limits with which the small plants cannot cope. Plant size and especially fecundity and propensity for mast failure years play a major role in determining the variability and synchrony of reproduction in plants.