This report evaluates the market status and potential freight market penetration of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) and near ZEVs in the medium and heavy duty class within the California market. It evaluates alternative technologies, primarily battery electric, fuel cell, and hybrid technologies, and compares them to existing gasoline, diesel, and natural gas vehicles used in comparable applications. Refueling infrastructure requirements and logistics planning are considered along with vehicle technology. The report’s primary focus is on intra-urban, as opposed to long haul, deployment scenarios. Intra-urban scenarios produce the greatest potential for reduction of pollutant exposure while minimizing problems associated with the reduced range of some developing vehicle technologies. In California, there are currently 2080 hybrid, 300 medium duty and 40 heavy duty electric vehicles in demonstration or revenue service. There are currently plans to deploy several dozen heavy duty fuel cell vehicles in the near future. The literature review finds that while there are substantial existing studies providing direct comparisons between light-duty electric and fossil-fueled vehicles during actual operation, heavy-duty electric vehicles (e.g., class 8) have been less well studied. Fuel cell vehicle studies are also very sparse, and are primarily available in the public transit sector for buses. ZEV vehicles are still comparatively more expensive to purchase, though they have much higher fuel efficiency when compared with traditional diesel technology. Due to range restrictions, these vehicles would also require additional attention to routing and refueling, which at present is considered on a case-by-case basis by each company conducting demonstration projects thus has limited comparability.

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International trade continues to increase, with container trade growing at a 9.5% annual rate worldwide and at a 6% annual rate in the United States. Container ships are also getting bigger to meet this growing demand. As a result, cargo is concentrated into the largest ports, which intensifies bottlenecks on the road networks surrounding these ports. Thus, logistics companies are faced with increasing complexity in their operations and increasing traffic congestion that adds costs, as well as greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution. The transition to zero emission truck technology could add further complexity, requiring companies to plan for electric trucks’ shorter ranges and longer refueling times.

Researchers at the University of Southern California developed a centrally coordinated freight routing system and ran several simulations to minimize the social costs of freight transportation, also accounting for adoption of electric trucks. The researchers also interviewed several individuals with responsibility for trucking operations in the Los Angeles region to better understand the implementation issues of a centrally coordinated freight routing system. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications.

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The current freight transportation network is highly unbalanced as routing decisions are made by individual users without coordination. Certain routes may become congested when chosen based on current traffic information without any anticipation that if other users do the same, these routes are no longer the best. This project developed a centrally coordinated load balancing system that considers all user demands and generates individual routes that balance freight loads across the network by minimizing cost. It is initially assumed that all vehicles are diesel and then gradually increases zero emissions vehicles such as electric trucks for a mixed fleet of trucks. The electric trucks add additional constraints due to limitation of range and charging time of batteries. As the number of electric trucks increases, the emissions reduce as expected; however, the cost of charging does not make their use less operational costly than the corresponding diesel trucks. The experiments show that for electric trucks to compete with diesel, charging should occur when drivers are off duty or in idle mode since the cost of charging is mainly due to the labor cost of the waiting driver. Several simulation experiments show the benefits of deploying electric trucks in a freight fleet with respect to environment and operational cost, provided charging is scheduled appropriately. It is shown that the proposed centrally coordinated load balancing system can easily incorporate different concepts such as the empty container re-use where the exchange of containers between users can be optimized to reduce empty trips. In order to better understand the implementation issues of a load balancing system, the report also includes results from interviews of individuals responsible for trucking operations in the Los Angeles region. All interviewed trucking companies are either drayage operations (hauling freight to and from ports or intermodal facilities) or short-haul operators that move goods between manufacturers, distribution center, and retail facilities. The answer for load balancing system varies between interviewees and it is recommended to follow an iterative fashion by first targeting trucking companies who already work collaboratively in associations and vertical markets. These clusters of firms have built working relationships, engage in communication, and have trust between members.

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The potential for zero emission heavy duty trucks (ZEHDTs) is examined via simulation modeling, case studies, interviews and a survey. Impacts of ZEHDTs on freight operations are assessed. Costs and benefits of using diesel, natural gas hybrid and battery electric vehicles are compared for 2020, 2025, 2030. ZE applications are limited in the near term due to range and charging limitations, but as ZE performance improves and prices go down, they are viable for a larger segment of the market. Hybrid vehicles are the most cost effective alternative for reducing air toxics, but ZEHDTs reduce air toxics the most by 2025. The report presents recommendations for promoting and increasing the market share of ZEHDTs and hybrids.

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California is pursuing multiple policies to spur the transition to a cleaner heavy-duty vehicle fleet. Achieving these targets will require massive change in the heavy-duty short-haul industry, and many unanswered questions remain. How do battery-electric heavy-duty trucks compare to diesel in everyday short-haul operations? How much would it cost to transition to a zero-emission truck fleet, and who would pay?

To begin to answer these questions, researchers at the National Center for Sustainable Transportation conducted a comprehensive analysis of the potential for zero-emission or near-zero-emission heavy-duty trucks to be used in short-haul drayage services. The researchers considered operational, economic, and environmental impacts through simulation modeling, interviews, case studies, stated preference surveys, and cost-effectiveness analyses.

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