Sustained growth in lithium-ion battery (LIB) demand within the transportation sector (and the electricity sector) motivates detailed investigations of whether future raw materials supply will reconcile with resulting material requirements for these batteries. We track the metal content associated with compounds used in LIBs. We find that most of the key constituents, including manganese, nickel, and natural graphite, have sufficient supply to meet the anticipated increase in demand for LIBs. There may be challenges in rapidly scaling the use of materials associated with lithium and cobalt in the short term. Due to long battery lifetimes and multiple end uses, recycling is unlikely to provide significant short-term supply. There are risks associated with the geopolitical concentrations of these elements, particularly for cobalt. The lessons revealed in this work can be relevant to other industries in which the rapid growth of a materials-dependent technology disrupts the global supply of those materials. The key conclusions of this perspective have shown that the supply of most materials contained within lithium-ion batteries will likely meet the demand for the near future. However, there are potential risks associated with the supply of cobalt. Furthermore, if there is rapid adoption of electric vehicles (incentivized by policy interventions including a carbon tax, higher fuel taxes, and more aggressive Corporate Average Fuel Economy targets), demand could outpace supply for some battery-grade materials (even for lithium in the very near term). The implications for research based on this perspective span many scales. First, continued research into cathode materials that alleviate some of these supply issues is of interest, particularly those that are cobalt free. Supply chain research and investigations in the policy domain may also help uncover ways to address materials availability in the future. Future investigations should provide a dynamic analysis with sufficient detail to map technological and operational changes to their impact on cost and to map performance to market value. There has been continued growth in lithium-ion battery-powered electric vehicles. This puts new pressure on the supply of materials used in these products. We present an analysis of supply chain issues for lithium, manganese, cobalt, nickel, and natural graphite focused first on their potential supply concerns and then the scaled demand for these materials. This contribution provides practical considerations that should factor into sustainable energy research, particularly as it relates to global impact on materials supply chains.

Lithium-ion battery demand, particularly for electric vehicles, is projected to increase by over 300% throughout the next decade. With these expected increases in demand, cobalt (Co)-dependent technologies face the risk of significant impact from supply concentration and mining limitations in the short term. Increased extraction and secondary recovery form the basis of modeling scenarios that examine implications on Co supply to 2030. Demand for Co is estimated to range from 235 to 430 ktonnes in 2030. This upper bound on Co demand in 2030 corresponds to 280% of world refinery capacity in 2016. Supply from scheduled and unscheduled production as well as secondary production is estimated to range from 320 to 460 ktonnes. Our analysis suggests the following: (1) Co price will remain relatively stable in the short term, given that this range suggests even a supply surplus, (2) future Co supply will become more diversified geographically and mined more as a byproduct of nickel (Ni) over this period, and (3) for this demand to be met, attention should be paid to sustained investments in refined supply of Co and secondary recovery.