US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20–79 from the 2001–2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (<10% risk, 10–20% risk, or >20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having “moderate” risk (<10% risk of a major coronary event in the next 10 years), 22% as having “moderately high” (10–20%) risk, and 7% as having “high” (>20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25–46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

Background and objective

There has been concern over rising use of prescription opioids in young and middle-aged adults. Much less is known about opioid prescribing in older adults, for whom clinical recommendations and the balance of risks and benefits differ from younger adults. We evaluated changes in use of opioids and other analgesics in a national sample of clinic visits made by older adults between 1999 and 2010.

Design, setting, and subjects

Observational study of adults aged 65 and older from the 1999-2010 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, serial cross-sectional surveys of outpatient visits in the United States.

Methods

Medication use was assessed at each study visit and included medications in use prior to the visit and medications newly prescribed at the visit. Results were adjusted for survey weights and design factors to provide nationally representative estimates.

Results

Mean age was 75 ± 7 years, and 45% of visits occurred in primary care settings. Between 1999-2000 and 2009-2010, the percent of clinic visits at which an opioid was used rose from 4.1% to 9.0% (P < 0.001). Although use of all major opioid classes increased, the largest contributor to increased use was hydrocodone-containing combination opioids, which rose from 1.1% to 3.5% of visits over the study period (P < 0.001). Growth in opioid use was observed across a wide range of patient and clinic characteristics, including in visits for musculoskeletal problems (10.7% of visits in 1999-2000 to 17.0% in 2009-2010, P < 0.001) and in visits for other reasons (2.8% to 7.3%, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Opioid use by older adults visiting clinics more than doubled between 1999 and 2010, and occurred across a wide range of patient characteristics and clinic settings.

Objective

To determine the distribution of screening prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values in older men, and how different PSA thresholds affect the proportion of white, black, and Latino men who would have an abnormal screening result across advancing age groups.

Methods

We used linked national Veterans Affairs and Medicare data to determine the value of the first screening PSA test (ng/mL) of 327,284 men older than 65 years who underwent PSA screening in the Veterans Affairs health care system in 2003. We calculated the proportion of men with an abnormal PSA result based on age, race, and common PSA thresholds.

Results

Among men older than 65 years, 8.4% had a PSA >4.0 ng/mL. The percentage of men with a PSA >4.0 ng/mL increased with age and was highest in black men (13.8%) vs white (8.0%) or Latino men (10.0%) (P <.001). Combining age and race, the probability of having a PSA >4.0 ng/mL ranged from 5.1% of Latino men aged 65-69 years to 27.4% of black men older than 85 years. Raising the PSA threshold from >4.0 ng/mL to >10.0 ng/mL reclassified the greatest percentage of black men older than 85 years (18.3% absolute change) and the lowest percentage of Latino men aged 65-69 years (4.8% absolute change) as being under the biopsy threshold (P <.001).

Conclusion

Age, race, and PSA threshold together affect the pretest probability of an abnormal screening PSA result. Based on screening PSA distributions, stopping screening among men whose PSA <3 ng/mL means more than 80% of white and Latino men older than 70 years would stop further screening, and increasing the biopsy threshold to >10 ng/mL has the greatest effect on reducing the number of older black men who will face biopsy decisions after screening.

Background

Aging is accompanied by an overall dysregulation of many dynamic physiologic processes including those related to blood pressure (BP). While year-to-year BP variability is associated with cardiovascular events and mortality, no studies have examined this trend with more frequent BP assessments. Our study objective is to take the next step to examine week-to-week BP dynamics-pattern, variability, and complexity-before death.

Methods

Using a retrospective study design, we assessed BP dynamics in the 6 months before death in long-term nursing home residents between 1 October 2006 and 30 September 2017. Variability was characterized using SD and mean squared error after adjusting for diurnal variations. Complexity (i.e., amount of novel information in a trend) was examined using Shannon's entropy (bits). Generalized linear models were used to examine factors associated with overall BP variability.

Results

We identified 17,953 nursing home residents (98.0% male, 82.5% White, mean age 80.2 years, and mean BP 125.7/68.6 mm Hg). Despite a slight trend of decreasing systolic week-to-week BP over time (delta = 7.2 mm Hg), week-to-week complexity did not change in the 6 months before death (delta = 0.02 bits). Average weekly BP variability was stable until the last 3-4 weeks of life, at which point variability increased by 30% for both systolic and diastolic BP. Factors associated with BP variability include average weekly systolic/diastolic BP, days in the nursing home, days in the hospital, and changes to antihypertensive medications.

Conclusions

Week-to-week BP variability increases substantially in the last month of life, but complexity does not change. Changes in care patterns may drive the increase in BP variability as one approaches death.

Objective

To investigate how statin use is associated with the probability of having an abnormal screening prostate-specific antigen (PSA) result according to common PSA thresholds for biopsy (>2.5, >4.0, and >6.5 ng/mL).

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study of 323,426 men aged ≥65 years who had a screening PSA test in 2003 at a Veterans Affairs facility. The primary predictor was the use of statin medications at the time of index screening PSA test. The main outcome was the screening PSA value. Poisson regressions were performed to calculate adjusted relative risks for having an abnormal screening PSA result according to statin usage.

Results

Percentages of men with PSA results exceeding commonly used thresholds of >2.5, >4.0, and >6.5 ng/mL were 21.0%, 7.6%, and 1.6%, respectively. These percentages decreased with statin use, increasing statin dose, duration of statin use, and potency of the statin. For example, after adjusting for age, the percentage of men having a PSA level >4.0 ng/mL ranged from 8.2% in non-statin users to 6.2% in men prescribed with >40 mg of simvastatin dose. Adjusted relative risks of having a PSA level >4.0 ng/mL were 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86-0.93), 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.91), and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80-0.87), respectively for men on simvastatin dose of 5-20, >20-40, and >40 mg vs non-statin users.

Conclusion

Statin use is associated with a reduction in the probability that an older man will have an abnormal screening PSA result, regardless of the PSA threshold. This reduction is more pronounced with higher statin dose, longer statin duration, and higher statin potency.

Background

Little is known about how often contextual factors such as patient preferences and competing priorities impact prescribing of guideline-recommended medications, or about the extent to which these factors are documented in medical records and available to performance measurement systems.

Methods

Mixed-methods study of 295 veterans aged 50 years and older in 4 VA health care systems who had systolic heart failure and were not prescribed a β-blocker and/or an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin-receptor blocker. Reasons for nontreatment were identified from clinic notes and from interviews with 62 primary care clinicians caring for these patients. These reasons were classified using a published taxonomy.

Results

Among 295 patients not receiving guideline-recommended drugs for heart failure, chart review identified biomedical reasons for nonprescribing in 42%-58% of patients and contextual reasons in 11%-17%. Clinician interviews identified twice as many reasons for nonprescribing as chart review (mean 1.6 vs. 0.8 reasons per patient, P<0.001). In these interviews, biomedical reasons for nonprescribing were cited in 50%-70% of patients, and contextual reasons in 64%-70%. The most common contextual reasons were comanagement with other clinicians (32%-35% of patients), patient preferences and nonadherence (15%-24%), and clinician belief that the medication is not indicated in the patient (12%-20%).

Conclusions

Contextual reasons for not prescribing angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor / angiotensin-receptor blockers and β-blockers are present in two thirds of patients with heart failure who did not receive these medications, yet are poorly documented in medical records. The structure of medical records should be improved to facilitate documentation of contextual reasons for not providing guideline-recommended care.

Objectives

To determine patterns of co-occurring diseases in older adults and the extent to which these patterns vary between the young-old and the old-old.

Design

Observational study.

Setting

Department of Veterans Affairs.

Participants

Veterans aged 65 years and older (1.9 million male, mean age 76 ± 7; 39,000 female, mean age 77 ± 8) with two or more visits to Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) or Medicare settings in 2007 and 2008.

Measurements

The presence of 23 common conditions was assessed using hospital discharge diagnoses and outpatient encounter diagnoses from the VA and Medicare.

Results

The mean number of chronic conditions (out of 23 possible) was 5.5 ± 2.6 for men and 5.1 ± 2.6 for women. The prevalence of most conditions increased with advancing age, although diabetes mellitus and hyperlipidemia were 11% to 13% less prevalent in men and women aged 85 and older than in those aged 65 to 74 (P < .001 for each). In men, the most common three-way combination of conditions was hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and coronary heart disease, which together were present in 37% of men. For women, the most common combination was hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and arthritis, which co-occurred in 25% of women. Reflecting their high population prevalence, hypertension and hyperlipidemia were both present in 9 of the 15 most common three-way disease combinations in men and in 11 of the 15 most common combinations in women. The prevalence of many disease combinations varied substantially between young-old and old-old adults.

Conclusions

Specific combinations of diseases are highly prevalent in older adults and inform the development of guidelines that account for the simultaneous presence of multiple chronic conditions.

Background

Electronic health record (EHR) prediction models may be easier to use in busy clinical settings since EHR data can be auto-populated into models. This study assessed whether adding functional status and/or Medicare claims data (which are often not available in EHRs) improves the accuracy of a previously developed Veterans Affairs (VA) EHR-based mortality index.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of veterans aged 75 years and older enrolled in VA primary care clinics followed from January 2014 to April 2020 (n = 62,014). We randomly split participants into development (n = 49,612) and validation (n = 12,402) cohorts. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. We performed logistic regression with backward stepwise selection to develop a 100-predictor base model using 854 EHR candidate variables, including demographics, laboratory values, medications, healthcare utilization, diagnosis codes, and vitals. We incorporated functional measures in a base + function model by adding activities of daily living (range 0-5) and instrumental activities of daily living (range 0-7) scores. Medicare data, including healthcare utilization (e.g., emergency department visits, hospitalizations) and diagnosis codes, were incorporated in a base + Medicare model. A base + function + Medicare model included all data elements. We assessed model performance with the c-statistic, reclassification metrics, fraction of new information provided, and calibration plots.

Results

In the overall cohort, mean age was 82.6 years and 98.6% were male. At the end of follow-up, 30,263 participants (48.8%) had died. The base model c-statistic was 0.809 (95% CI 0.805-0.812) in the development cohort and 0.804 (95% CI 0.796-0.812) in the validation cohort. Validation cohort c-statistics for the base + function, base + Medicare, and base + function + Medicare models were 0.809 (95% CI 0.801-0.816), 0.811 (95% CI 0.803-0.818), and 0.814 (95% CI 0.807-0.822), respectively. Adding functional status and Medicare data resulted in similarly small improvements among other model performance measures. All models showed excellent calibration.

Conclusions

Incorporation of functional status and Medicare data into a VA EHR-based mortality index led to small but likely clinically insignificant improvements in model performance.

Background

Pulmonary nodule guidelines do not indicate how to individualize follow-up according to comorbidity or life expectancy.

Objectives

To characterize comorbidity and life expectancy in older veterans with incidental, symptom-detected, or screen-detected nodules in 2008-09 compared to 2013-14. To determine the impact of these patient factors on four-year nodule follow-up among the 2008-09 subgroup.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

Urban Veterans Affairs Medical Center.

Participants

243 veterans age ≥65 with newly diagnosed pulmonary nodules in 2008-09 (followed for four years through 2012 or 2013) and 446 older veterans diagnosed in 2013-14.

Measurements

The primary outcome was receipt of any follow-up nodule imaging and/or biopsy within four years after nodule diagnosis. Primary predictor variables included age, Charlson-Deyo Comorbidity Index (CCI), and life expectancy. Favorable life expectancy was defined as age 65-74 with CCI 0 while limited life expectancy was defined as age ≥85 with CCI ≥1 or age ≥65 with CCI ≥4. Interaction by nodule size was also examined.

Results

From 2008-09 to 2013-14, the number of older veterans diagnosed with new pulmonary nodules almost doubled, including among those with severe comorbidity and limited life expectancy. Overall among the 2008-09 subgroup, receipt of nodule follow-up decreased with increasing comorbidity (CCI ≥4 versus 0: adjusted RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.39-0.95) with a trend towards decreased follow-up among those with limited life expectancy (adjusted RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.48-1.01). However, we detected an interaction effect with nodule size such that comorbidity and life expectancy were associated with decreased follow-up only among those with nodules ≤6 mm.

Conclusions

We found some individualization of pulmonary nodule follow-up according to comorbidity and life expectancy in older veterans with smaller nodules only. As increased imaging detects nodules in sicker patients, guidelines need to be more explicit about how to best incorporate comorbidity and life expectancy to maximize benefits and minimize harms for patients with nodules of all sizes.

Importance

Despite ongoing controversies surrounding prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, many men 65 years or older undergo screening. However, few data exist that quantify the chain of events following screening in clinical practice to better inform decisions.

Objective

To quantify 5-year downstream outcomes following a PSA screening result exceeding 4.0 ng/mL in older men.

Design and setting

Longitudinal cohort study in the national Veterans Affairs health care system.

Participants

In total, 295,645 men 65 years or older who underwent PSA screening in the Veterans Affairs health care system in 2003 and were followed up for 5 years using national Veterans Affairs and Medicare data.

Main outcome measures

Among men whose index screening PSA level exceeded 4.0 ng/mL, we determined the number who underwent prostate biopsy, were diagnosed as having prostate cancer, were treated for prostate cancer, and were treated for prostate cancer and were alive at 5 years according to baseline characteristics. Biopsy and treatment complications were also assessed.

Results

In total, 25,208 men (8.5%) had an index PSA level exceeding 4.0 ng/mL. During the 5-year follow-up period, 8313 men (33.0%) underwent at least 1 prostate biopsy, and 5220 men (62.8%) who underwent prostate biopsy were diagnosed as having prostate cancer, of whom 4284 (82.1%) were treated for prostate cancer. Performance of prostate biopsy decreased with advancing age and worsening comorbidity (P < .001), whereas the percentage treated for biopsy-detected cancer exceeded 75% even among men 85 years or older, those with a Charlson-Deyo Comorbidity Index of 3 or higher, and those having low-risk cancer. Among men with biopsy-detected cancer, the risk of death from non-prostate cancer causes increased with advancing age and worsening comorbidity (P < .001). In total, 468 men (5.6%) had complications within 7 days after prostate biopsy. Complications of prostate cancer treatment included new urinary incontinence in 584 men (13.6%) and new erectile dysfunction 588 men (13.7%).

Conclusions and relevance

Performance of prostate biopsy is uncommon in older men with abnormal screening PSA levels and decreases with advancing age and worsening comorbidity. However, once cancer is detected on biopsy, most men undergo immediate treatment regardless of advancing age, worsening comorbidity, or low-risk cancer. Understanding downstream outcomes in clinical practice should better inform individualized decisions among older men considering PSA screening.