The causal frame problem is an epistemological puzzle about
how the mind is able to disregard seemingly irrelevant causal
knowledge, and focus on those factors that promise to be useful
in making an inference or coming to a decision. Taking
a subject’s causal knowledge to be (implicitly) represented in
terms of directed graphical models, the causal frame problem
can be construed as the question of how to determine a reasonable
“submodel” of one’s “full model” of the world, so as
to optimize the balance between accuracy in prediction on the
one hand, and computational costs on the other. We propose a
framework for addressing this problem, and provide several illustrative
examples based on HMMs and Bayes nets. We also
show that our framework can account for some of the recent
empirical phenomena associated with alternative neglect.