According to probabilistic theories of higher cognition,
beliefs come in degrees. Here, we test this idea by studying
how people make predictions from uncertain beliefs.
According to the degrees-of-belief theory, people should
take account of both high- and low-probability beliefs
when making predictions that depend on which of those
beliefs are true. In contrast, according to the all-or-none
theory, people only take account of the most likely belief,
ignoring other potential beliefs. Experiments 1 and 2 tested
these theories in explanatory reasoning, and found that
people ignore all but the best explanation when making
subsequent inferences. Experiment 3A extended these
results to beliefs fixed only by prior probabilities, while
Experiment 3B found that people can perform the
probability calculations when the needed probabilities are
explicitly given. Thus, people’s intuitive belief system
appears to represent beliefs in a ‘digital’ (true or false)
manner, rather than taking uncertainty into account