For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions.

This paper presents decision analysis methodology for decisions based on data from geographic information systems. The consequences of a decision alternative are modeled as distributions of outcomes across a geographic region. We discuss conditions that may conform with the decision maker's preferences over a specified set of alternatives; then we present specific forms for value or utility functions that are implied by these conditions. Decisions in which there is certainty about the consequences resulting from each alternative are considered first; then probabilistic uncertainty about the consequences is included as an extension. The methodology is applied to two hypothetical urban planning decisions involving water use and temperature reduction in regional urban development, and fire coverage across a city. These examples illustrate the applicability of the approach and the insights that can be gained from using it. © 2014 INFORMS.

Most research on the performance of foreign versus domestic brands in emerging markets has examined dependent measures of product evaluation or purchase intention. However, consumers who intend to buy a product may switch to competing brands, thus displaying an intention–behavior discrepancy (IBD). Drawing on literature on country associations and dual process theory, the authors examine the performance of foreign versus domestic brands on IBD in emerging markets and the moderating role of consumer prior knowledge. They conduct an intention survey followed by a postpurchase survey in the Chinese automobile and smartphone industries and find that foreign brands have an advantage on IBD relative to domestic brands, indicating that they have the dual advantage of higher evaluations and lower IBDs. Furthermore, foreign brands’ advantage on IBD is smaller for consumers with inaccurate prior knowledge because they are more likely to systematically reprocess information and discount foreign brands’ favorable country associations. For these consumers, overestimating the product reduces foreign brands’ advantage to a lesser degree than underestimating it as a result of confirmation bias. These findings provide implications for brands in emerging markets.

In the context of the recent recalls of contaminated pet food and lead-painted toys in the United States, we examine patterns of risk perceptions and decisions when facing consumer product-caused quality risks. Two approaches were used to explore risk perceptions of the product recalls. In the first approach, we elicited judged probabilities and found that people appear to have greatly overestimated the actual risks for both product scenarios. In the second approach, we applied the psychometric paradigm to examine risk perception dimensions concerning these two specific products through factor analysis. There was a similar risk perception pattern for both products: they are seen as unknown risks and are relatively not dread risks. This pattern was also similar to what prior research found for lead paint. Further, we studied people's potential actions to deal with the recalls of these two products. Several factors were found to be significant predictors of respondents' cautious actions for both product scenarios. Policy considerations regarding product quality risks are discussed. For example, risk communicators could reframe information messages to prompt people to consider total risks packed together from different causes, even when the risk message has been initiated due to a specific recall event.

Objective To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab in recurrent/persistent and metastatic cervical cancer using recently reported updated survival and toxicology data. Methods A Markov decision tree based on the Gynecologic Oncology Group 240 randomized trial was created. The 2013 MediCare Services Drug Payment Table and Physician Fee Schedule provided costs. In the 5-year model subjects transitioned through the following states: response, progression, minor complications, severe complications, and death. Patients experiencing a health utility per month according to treatment effectiveness were calculated. Because cervical cancer survival is measured in months rather than years, results were reported in both quality adjusted cervical cancer life months and years (QALmonth, QALY), adjusted from a baseline of having advanced cervical cancer during a month. Results The estimated total cost of therapy with bevacizumab is approximately 13.2 times that for chemotherapy alone, adding $73,791 per 3.5 months (0.29 year) of life gained, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $21.083 per month of added life. The ICER increased to $5775 per month of added life and $24,597/QALmonth ($295,164/QALY) due to the smaller difference in QALmonths. With 75% bevacizumab cost reduction, the ICER is $6737/QALmonth ($80,844/QALY), which translates to $23,580 for the 3.5 month (0.29 year) gain in OS. Conclusions Increased costs are primarily related to the cost of drug and not the management of bevacizumab-induced complications. Cost reductions in bevacizumab result in dramatic declines in the ICER, suggesting that cost reconciliation in advanced cervical cancer may be possible through the availability of biosimilars, and/or less expensive, equally efficacious anti-angiogenesis agents.

We have imaged the bipolar planetary nebula M2-9 using SOFIA's FORCAST instrument in six wavelength bands between 6.6 and 37.1 $\mu m$. A bright central point source, unresolved with SOFIA's $\sim$ 4${''}$-to-5${''}$ beam, is seen at each wavelength, and the extended bipolar lobes are clearly seen at 19.7 $\mu m$ and beyond. The photometry between 10 and 25 $\mu m$ is well fit by the emission predicted from a stratified disk seen at large inclination, as has been proposed for this source by Lykou et al and by Smith and Gehrz. The principal new results in this paper relate to the distribution and properties of the dust that emits the infrared radiation. In particular, a considerable fraction of this material is spread uniformly through the lobes, although the dust density does increase at the sharp outer edge seen in higher resolution optical images of M2-9. The dust grain population in the lobes shows that small ($<$ 0.1 $\mu m$) and large ($>$ 1 $\mu m$) particles appear to be present in roughly equal amounts by mass. We suggest that collisional processing within the bipolar outflow plays an important role in establishing the particle size distribution.