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Scholarly Works (12 results)

  • Thesis
  • Peer Reviewed
UC Berkeley Electronic Theses and Dissertations (2018)

This dissertation presents a set of analytical tools developed to investigate the energy system transition using a systems approach. The cases explored range from Kosovo, a country on the verge of new electricity supply investments, and future energy pathways to an analytical investigation of innovation in battery storage systems that could unlock the environmental and health benefits of intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind technologies. The analytical tools compare existing metrics such as levelized cost of electricity with new metrics such as a two-factor learning curve of deployment and innovation and trace metal content of coal per final kWh of electricity delivered and energy return on investment of distributed energy systems.

Chapter 1 investigates the case of Kosovo and introduces an analytic framework to analyze electricity costs and environmental impacts of future electricity options. The scheduled decommissioning of the Kosovo A coal-fired power plant provides an opportunity to investigate the changing cost of alternative energy options available in Kosovo for new energy infrastructure. I find that a range of investment pathways from international financial institutions and donor groups could meet the same projected electricity demand at a lower cost than building a new 600 MW coal fired power plant. The options include energy efficiency measures, combinations of solar PV, wind, hydropower, biomass, and the introduction of natural gas. The results indicate that financing a new coal plant is the most expensive pathway to meet future electricity demand in Kosovo.

Chapter 2 utilizes the analytic framework developed to estimate the cost of future electricity pathways and uses green chemistry and public health risk assessment to estimate trace metal content of coal and investigate the air-pollution-related-health risks of lignite coal in Kosovo. By utilizing ICP-MS, I sample lignite coal for trace metal content and develop a risk model to assess future health impacts of air pollution from the electricity options explored in Chapter 1. I find significant trace metal content normalized per kWh of final electricity delivered. I estimate that Kosovo could avoid 2300 premature deaths by 2030 when introducing energy efficiency and solar PV backed up by natural gas. The framework highlights that often multi-lateral development banks do not account for all health risks before guaranteeing loans on new electricity projects. The interest in finding sustainable options to balance the load of intermittent renewable energy options in Kosovo motivates further analysis to understand how battery storage technologies have developed over time in terms of performance and cost.

Chapter 3 examines the dramatically falling cost of battery storage options. I develop a two- factor technological learning curve model that integrates the value of investment in materials innovation and technology deployment over time from an empirical dataset covering battery storage technology. I find and chart a viable path to dispatchable $1/W solar with $100/kWh battery storage that enables combinations of solar, wind, and storage to compete directly with fossil fuel-based electricity options. I highlight the co-evolutionary nature of the cost reductions of battery storage technologies and suggest the relative importance of sustained investment and integration of R&D and deployment to develop innovative low-carbon combined solar, storage, and wind systems.

Chapter 4 highlights the changing energy return on investment of energy technologies by investigating a case in Thailand where distributed solar, mini-hydro, and battery storage mini- grids are becoming an attractive investment and serve as core options to meet growing demand for electricity. I compare the net energy return on investment (EROI) of mini-hydropower, solar PV, and battery storage. This study represents a direct application of the opportunities for battery storage technologies to enable cost-competitive mini-grids in Thailand and around the world.

The dissertation highlights different plans, designs, and future management of cost-effective, sustainable, and healthy electricity systems for a clean energy transition worldwide. The analytical tools presented combine to integrate traditional economic, environmental, and health metrics into energy systems planning and innovation. By integrating these interconnected systems, it becomes possible to enable cleaner and more sustainable energy transitions.

    Cover page: Energy Systems Integration and Innovation for a Clean Energy Transition
    • Article
    • Peer Reviewed
    UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2018)
    Renewable energy–such as photovoltaics and wind power–is rapidly moving into the mainstream, with global solar capacity set to outproduce nuclear energy capacity for the first time. But a major holdup has been how to store the electricity produced by renewables; consequently, good, cheap, long-lasting battery storage has been the Holy Grail of R&D in this area. But how close are we in reaching this goal? To track progress, the authors have introduced a new, “two-factor” model of analyzing innovations in energy storage that accounts not only for total sales of a particular technology but also for the degree of investment in innovation, measured by looking at the number of new patents issued in energy storage technology.
      Cover page: A battery of innovative choices—if we commit to investing
      • Article
      • Peer Reviewed
      UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2017)
      The clean energy transition requires a co-evolution of innovation, investment, and deployment strategies for emerging energy storage technologies. A deeply decarbonized energy system research platform needs materials science advances in battery technology to overcome the intermittency challenges of wind and solar electricity. Simultaneously, policies designed to build market growth and innovation in battery storage may complement cost reductions across a suite of clean energy technologies. Further integration of R&D and deployment of newstorage technologies paves a clear route toward cost-e?ective low-carbon electricity. Here we analyse deployment and innovation using a two-factor model that integrates the value of investment in materials innovation and technology deployment over time from an empirical dataset covering battery storage technology. Complementary advances in battery storage are of utmost importance to decarbonization alongside improvements in renewable electricity sources. We find and chart a viable path to dispatchable US$1W-1 solar with US$100kWh-1 battery storage that enables combinations of solar, wind, and storage to compete directly with fossil-based electricity options.
        Cover page: Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition
        • Article
        • Peer Reviewed
        UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2016)
        With dramatic cost declines and performance improvements, both mini-hydropower and solar photovoltaics (PV) now serve as core options to meet the growing demand for electricity in underserved regions worldwide. We compare the net energy return on energy invested (EROI) of mini-hydropower and solar electricity using five existing mini-hydropower installations in northern Thailand with grid-connected solar PV simulations. Both assessments use a life cycle perspective to estimate the EROI. We find that distributed mini-grids with penetrations of solar PV up to 50% of annual generation can exceed the EROI of some fossil-based traditional centralized grid systems. The analysis will help planners and engineers optimize mini-grids for energy payback and utilize local resources in their design. The results suggest higher EROI ratios for mini-hydropower plants than solar PV, though mini-hydropower plants typically yield lower EROI ratios than their large-scale hydropower counterparts.
          Cover page: Energy return on investment (EROI) of mini-hydro and solar PV systems designed for a mini-grid
          • Article
          • Peer Reviewed
          UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2019)
          In 2015, ASEAN established a goal of increasing its renewable energy share in its energy portfolio from approximately 13–23% by 2025. Renewable electricity, especially intermittent and variable sources, presents challenges for grid operators due to the uncertain timing and quantity of electricity supply. Grid flexibility, the electric grid's ability to respond to changing demands and supply, now stands a key resource in responding to these uncertainties while maximizing the cost-effective role of clean energy. We develop and apply a grid flexibility assessment tool to assess ASEAN's current grid flexibility using six quantitative indicators: grid reliability, electricity market access; load profile ramp capacity; quality of forecasting tools; proportion of electricity generation from natural gas; and renewable energy diversity. We find that ASEAN nations cluster into three groups: better; moderately; and the least prepared nations. We develop an analytical ramp rate calculator to quantify expected load ramps for ASEAN in an integrated ASEAN Power Grid scenario. The lack of forecasting systems and limited electricity market access represent key weaknesses and areas where dramatic improvements can become cost-effective means to increase regional grid flexibility. As ASEAN pursues renewable energy targets, regional cooperation remains essential to address identified challenges. Member nations need to increase grid flexibility capacity to adequately prepare for higher penetrations of renewable electricity and lower overall system costs.
            Cover page: ASEAN grid flexibility: Preparedness for grid integration of renewable energy
            • Peer Reviewed
            UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2020)
              Cover page: Chapter 8 Grid-scale energy storage
              • Peer Reviewed
              UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2020)
                Cover page: Chapter 9 Electric vehicles
                • Article
                • Peer Reviewed
                UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2018)
                There have been numerous emerging next generation solar cell technologies with the potential to disrupt the solar industry. Perovskites in particular have taken the spotlight recently with unprecedented efficiency improvements. To quantify the rate of innovation in next generation solar technologies, we used learning curves to model improvements in efficiency relative to three parameters: Time since first publication, cumulative publications, and cumulative patents. The learning rates found for perovskite solar cells are compared to those of dye-sensitized, and quantum dot solar cells. In doing so, this analysis aims to elicit a better understanding of the drivers of innovation for emerging solar technologies and identify technologies demonstrating extraordinary technological progress.
                  • Article
                  • Peer Reviewed
                  UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2018)
                  More than 6600 coal-fired power plants serve an estimated five billion people globally and contribute 46% of annual CO2 emissions. Gases and particulate matter from coal combustion are harmful to humans and often contain toxic trace metals. The decades-old Kosovo power stations, Europe's largest point source of air pollution, generate 98% of Kosovo's electricity and are due for replacement. Kosovo will rely on investment from external donors to replace these plants. Here, we examine non-CO2 emissions and health impacts by using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to analyze trace metal content in lignite coal from Obilic, Kosovo. We find significant trace metal content normalized per kWh of final electricity delivered (As (22.3 ± 1.7), Cr (44.1 ± 3.5), Hg (0.08 ± 0.010), and Ni (19.7 ± 1.7) mg/kWhe). These metals pose health hazards that persist even with improved grid efficiency. We explore the air-pollution-related risk associated with several alternative energy development pathways. Our analysis estimates that Kosovo could avoid 2300 premature deaths by 2030 with investments in energy efficiency and solar PV backed up by natural gas. Energy policy decisions should account for all associated health risks, as should multilateral development banks before guaranteeing loans on new electricity projects.
                    Cover page: Trace Metal Content of Coal Exacerbates Air-Pollution-Related Health Risks: The Case of Lignite Coal in Kosovo
                    • Article
                    • Peer Reviewed
                    UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2019)
                    A strategic mix of solar, wind and storage technologies around river basins would be safer and cheaper than building large dams, argue Rafael J. P. Schmitt, Noah Kittner and colleagues.
                      Cover page: Deploy diverse renewables to save tropical rivers
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