The M6.0 2004 Parkfield and M7.0 1989 Loma Prieta strike-slip earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault (SAF) were preceded by seismicity peaks occurring several months prior to the main events. Earthquakes directly within the SAF zone were intentionally excluded from the analysis because they manifest stress-release processes rather than stress accumulation. The observed increase in seismicity is interpreted as a signature of the increasing stress level in the surrounding crust, whereas the peaks and the subsequent decrease in seismicity are attributed to damage-induced softening processes. Furthermore, in both cases there is a distinctive zone of low seismic activity that surrounds the epicentral region in the pre-event period. The increase of seismicity in the crust surrounding a potential future event and the development of a low-seismicity epicentral zone can be regarded as promising precursory information that could help signal the arrival of large earthquakes. The Gutenberg-Richter relationship (GRR) should allow extrapolation of seismicity changes down to seismic noise level magnitudes. This hypothesis is verified by comparison of seismic noise at 80 Hz with the Parkfield M4 1993-1994 series, where noise peaks 5 months before the series to about twice the background level.

Two recent strike-slip earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in California, the M6.0 2004 Parkfield and M7.0 1989 Loma Prieta events, revealed peaks in the acoustic emission (AE) activity in the surrounding crust several months prior to the main events. Earthquakes directly within the SAF zone were intentionally excluded from the analysis. The observed increase in AE is assumed to be a signature of the increasing stress level in the surrounding crust, while the peak and subsequent decrease in AE starting several months prior to the main events is attributed to damage-induced softening processes as discussed herein. Further, distinctive zones of low seismic activity surrounding the epicentral regions in the pre-event time period are present for the two studied events. Both AE increases in the crust surrounding a potential future event and the development of a low-seismicity epicentral zone can be regarded as promising precursory information that could help signal the arrival of large earthquakes.

A unique data set of seismograms for 720 source-receiver paths has been collected as part of a controlled source Vibroseis experiment San Andreas Fault (SAF) at Parkfield. In the experiment, seismic waves repeatedly illuminated the epicentral region of the expected M6 event at Parkfield from June 1987 until November 1996. For this effort, a large shear-wave vibrator was interfaced with the 3-component (3-C) borehole High-Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), providing precisely timed collection of data for detailed studies of changes in wave propagation associated with stress and strain accumulation in the fault zone (FZ). Data collected by the borehole network were examined for evidence of changes associated with the nucleation process of the anticipated M6 earthquake at Parkfield. These investigations reported significant traveltime changes in the S coda for paths crossing the fault zone southeast of the epicenter and above the rupture zone of the 1966 M6 earthquake. Analysis and modeling of these data and comparison with observed changes in creep, water level, microseismicity, slip-at-depth and propagation from characteristic repeating microearthquakes showed temporal variations in a variety of wave propagation attributes that were synchronous with changes in deformation and local seismicity patterns. Numerical modeling suggests 200 meters as an effective thickness of SAF. The observed variations can be explained by velocity 6 percent velocity variation within SAF core. Numerical modeling studies and a growing number of observations have argued for the propagation of fault-zone guided waves (FZGW) within a SAF zone that is 100 to 200 m wide at seismogenic depths and with 20 to 40 percent lower shear-wave velocity than the adjacent unfaulted rock. Guided wave amplitude tomographic inversion for SAF using microearthquakes, shows clearly that FZGW are significantly less attenuated in a well-defined region of the FZ. This region plunges to the northwest along the northwest boundary of the region of highest moment release and separates locked and slipping sections of the SAF at depth, as determined independently from geodesy, seismicity and the recurrence rates of characteristically repeating microearthquakes. The mechanism for low FZGW attenuation in the zone is possibly due to dewatering by fracture closure and/or fault-normal compression, or changes in fracture orientation due to a complex stress or strain field at the boundary between creeping and locked zones of the San Andreas Fault. Temporal changes of FZGW correlates with changes in overall seismicity. Active monitoring of changes in FZGW has a potential for imaging and detecting of changes in strees within FZ cores. Since FZGW primarily propagate in the low-velocity core region of fault zones, they sample the most active zone of fault deformation and provide greater structural detail of the inner fault core than body waves which propagate primarily outside of the central core region. FZGW also can be used for FZ continuity studies.