During recessions, either declines in actual capital or increases in required capital
may intensify pressures on banks. One way for banks to boost their capital ratios is by
reducing their lending. However, one effect of systematic reductions in the supply of
bank loans during recessions would likely be to accentuate the magnitudes of
macroeconomic fluctuations. To reduce this source of “procyclicality”, it has been
proposed that Basel II include “escape clauses”. Such clauses might, for example, operate
so as to raise required bank capital during macroeconomic expansions and reduce it
during downturns.
Apart from formal escape clauses, procyclicality might be reduced or even
reversed in practice if banks exercise sufficient discretion in reporting their charge-offs
and loan loss provisions. We propose two hypotheses about the past cyclicality of such
discretion. We hypothesize that individual banks tended to report fewer charge-offs and
provisions when the banking system was troubled than when it was generally healthier.
That suggested our second hypothesis: Banks tended to cluster more when the banking
industry was troubled. Banks would maximize the value of their reporting discretion by
clustering more then; being similar to other banks raised the likelihood that a bank would
be able to exert reporting discretion when it encountered difficulties, because other,
similar banks, and thus the banking system as a whole, would likely be troubled at the
same time.
We found some support for our hypotheses at large U.S. banks. During the late
1980s, when banking was troubled and bank capital ratios were low, individual banks
reported fewer charge-offs, ceteris paribus, when the capital ratios of their peers were
lower. During the late 1990s, in contrast, when capital ratios were higher, charge-offs at
individual banks were not systematically related to the capital ratios of peer banks. We
also found that the equity and the asset betas of individual banks tended to cluster more
when banking was more troubled than they did when banking was less troubled.