The well-being of children and adolescents is emerging as an area of interest for population health measurement. Previous approaches assessing national and state trends in well-being have relied on composite indices. However, these methodologies suffer from several weaknesses. This paper develops an improved index for the United States that is measurable with existing population-data resources. It derives the appropriate weights for items in this index using a longitudinal panel of 2,942 children in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Candidate component measures are selected for the index based on their demonstrated association with several subjective scales assessed during young adulthood. The final index demonstrates that a broad range of measures indicate higher levels of population-level well-being. The predictive validity of the index for outcomes during young adulthood is also assessed: a one-standard-deviation increase in the index score is associated with a 7.9-percentage-point decrease [95% CI: 5.9 - 9.8] in ever reporting fair or poor health, a 6.3-percentage-point decrease [95% CI: 4.6 - 8.0] in ever reporting depression, and a 17.2% [95% CI: 13.7% - 20.5%] increase in peak earnings. These values for predictive validity are slightly higher than those of existing methodologies. We also find that incorporating contextual indicators from childhood and adolescence does not substantively improve predictive validity. Policy-makers and government agencies interested in population-level well-being of children and adolescents can continue to use existing indices as reasonable proxies, but should also commit to upgrading data systems to make them more child-centric in the future.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12187-022-09962-0.

Policy Points Social indicators of young peoples' conditions and circumstances, such as high school graduation, food insecurity, and smoking, are improving even as subjective indicators of mental health and well-being have been worsening. This divergence suggests policies targeting the social indicators may not have improved overall mental health and well-being. There are several plausible reasons for this seeming contradiction. Available data suggest the culpability of one or several common exposures poorly captured by existing social indicators. Resolving this disconnect requires significant investments in population-level data systems to support a more holistic, child-centric, and up-to-date understanding of young people's lives.